This alert expired on 27 June 2026 at 04:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 48th strongest of the 103 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 26 June 2026. 6 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued June 26 at 9:45PM EDT until June 27 at 12:30AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 332,593 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- June 12, 2026 · score 43 · 6.3 km
- July 5, 2026 · score 48 · 7.4 km
- July 18, 2026 · score 48 · 9.2 km
How we know
Confirmed by 8 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 89 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 89% |
| Coordinates | 38.3522, -77.4656 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (6 km) |
| Population Exposed | 332.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-06-27T01:45:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.99a0c6cfaf0a235f5ae00383a1ed2927594fa7a0.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued June 26 at 9:45PM EDT until June 27 at 12:30AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-06-27T00:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | M |
| Iem Magnitude | 39 |
| Iem Unit | mph |
| Iem City | Cobb Point |
| Iem County | ANZ537 |
| Iem State | MD |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Google News RssFeed | weather |
| Google News SourceName | The Washington Post |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_M_38.340_-76.990_1782511080000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782511080000,"latitude":38.34,"longitude":-76.99},{"id":"iem_D_38.380_-77.040_1782510180000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782510180000,"latitude":38.38,"longitude":-77.04},{"id":"iem_D_38.490_-77.160_1782508500000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782508500000,"latitude":38.49,"longitude":-77.16},{"id":"iem_M_38.310_-76.930_1782511980000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782511980000,"latitude":38.31,"longitude":-76.93},{"id":"iem_D_38.230_-77.220_1782509220000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782509220000,"latitude":38.23,"longitude":-77.22},{"id":"iem_M_38.240_-76.830_1782513540000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782513540000,"latitude":38.24,"longitude":-76.83},{"id":"gnews_weather_495144_225","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1782518778000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Fredericksburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.