Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 1 minute ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
2 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest <1 km from here.
This alert expired on 16 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 7 recorded within 20 km of this point since 19 August 2026 — 4 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 15 at 11:52AM EDT by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Urban PEI: 128,694 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 19 August 2026
- September 16, 2026 · score 37 · 0.0 km
- September 14, 2026 · score 37 · 0.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 37 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 37 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 29.0280, -82.4340 |
| Nearest City | Marion Oaks (25 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 128.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-15T15:52:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.e5dda5410ce25e7a16b20fb8e29cfbee2de4e37c.002.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-15T15:52:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-15T15:58:08.140Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-16T01:35:43.095Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T01:03:30.193Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:52:43.824Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:47:21.203Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:30:27.493Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:03:30.267Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T23:41:06.110Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T22:45:43.941Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T22:34:48.235Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T21:05:12.759Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T20:48:48.032Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T20:43:19.386Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T20:26:53.380Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T20:15:20.387Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T19:53:25.791Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T19:42:32.003Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T18:53:12.117Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Citrus, FL; Levy, FL; Marion, FL |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 15 at 11:52AM EDT by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL |
| Expires | 2026-09-15T23:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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