Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 27 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 68 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 8 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 1:23PM EDT until May 27 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 129,657 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 13.2 km
- June 12, 2026 · score 43 · 16.8 km
- September 3, 2026 · score 37 · 17.6 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 84 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 84% |
| Coordinates | 38.1967, -77.4032 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (13 km) |
| Population Exposed | 129.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-27T17:23:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.842ed484110f258ba962b588a46b8ef1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; King George, VA; Spotsylvania, VA and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 1:23PM EDT until May 27 at 1:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-27T13:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.842ed484110f258ba962b588a46b8ef1a41bb6b2.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f9e35808a2d575701a56764f4e0559121fe14c4b.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0b8cf519b0f9544458fb4c832ee63049baf88163.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4469e1f79900925cbf35ab21f571622d732902fb.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 E Lignum |
| Iem County | Culpeper |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | There was a call for trees down near the intersection of Elys Frd Road and Yellow Bottom Road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.420_-77.800_1779899400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779899400000,"latitude":38.42,"longitude":-77.8}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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