Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 17 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 9 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 9th strongest of the 25 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 15 April 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued May 9 at 6:06PM EDT until May 9 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
An estimated 18,371 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- May 9, 2026 · score 34 · 6.0 km
- June 12, 2026 · score 43 · 8.8 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 34 · 9.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100, at 79 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 79% |
| Coordinates | 42.0847, -80.7833 |
| Nearest City | Ashtabula (24 km) |
| Population Exposed | 18.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-09T22:06:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Special Marine Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fa63f9f1c1ba05eebfae6f926a30da6c |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor; Ripley to Dunkirk NY; Dunkirk to Buffalo NY; Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Lower Niagara River; Conneaut OH to Ripley NY; Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border; The Islands to Vermilion OH; Vermilion to Avon Point OH; Avon Point to Willowick OH; Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH; Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH; Conneaut OH to Ripley NY; The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued May 9 at 6:06PM EDT until May 9 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-05-09T19:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fa63f9f1c1ba05eebfae6f926a30da6cd4ba46f6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b508817553bd9ada64e726f194e57184fe16c39c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.32f58353f92a765f64204fb3a6df58cf17b092d7.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e923d774f10047b2e53b8fbb5d3130ec5f8c034d.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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