This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 118 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. One more was recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Warning issued March 16 at 10:44AM EDT until March 16 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 484,973 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- March 16, 2026 · score 72 · 7.2 km
- August 6, 2026 · score 37 · 10.9 km
- June 14, 2026 · score 43 · 13.2 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 67 out of 100, at 77 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 67 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 77% |
| Coordinates | 38.8917, -77.9183 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (24 km) |
| Population Exposed | 485.0K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | severe |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T14:44:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5905b7e4db805012252172dcb5cf8b30506b906b.002.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fauquier, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Tornado Warning issued March 16 at 10:44AM EDT until March 16 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T11:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 67/100, near Front Royal (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.