Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 28 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 136 recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026 — 2 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 22 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Warning issued March 16 at 10:57AM EDT until March 16 at 11:30AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 1,178,902 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- March 17, 2026 · score 52 · 7.2 km
- September 3, 2026 · score 41 · 9.3 km
- May 19, 2026 · score 52 · 10.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 76 out of 100, at 77 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 76 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 77% |
| Coordinates | 38.9167, -77.7425 |
| Nearest City | South Riding (21 km) |
| Population Exposed | 1.2M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | catastrophic |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T14:57:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Tornado Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7f7ee331d7cf35e14d1c4c890719235c |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fauquier, VA; Loudoun, VA; Prince William, VA; Fauquier, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Tornado Warning issued March 16 at 10:57AM EDT until March 16 at 11:30AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T11:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7f7ee331d7cf35e14d1c4c890719235c6ab2283e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5905b7e4db805012252172dcb5cf8b30506b906b.002.1"] |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near South Riding?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 76/100, near South Riding (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.