Calamity Forecast Index

7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.

Last updated: Aug 28, 2026, 2:35 AM

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Top Countries — cyclone

Country	CFI Score	Risk Level	Hazard	Primary Driver
🇨🇳 China	56	elevated	cyclone	Event frequency 6.0x above average for Cyclone in China
🇯🇵 Japan	47	elevated	cyclone	Event frequency 2.0x above average for Cyclone in Japan
🇵🇭 Philippines	30	moderate	cyclone	Peak Cyclone season for Philippines (historical: August/September/October)
🇺🇸 United States	30	moderate	cyclone	Peak Cyclone season for United States (historical: August/September/October)
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands	28	moderate	cyclone	Active cascade: Flooding from Tropical Cyclone 27P (80% probability)
🇻🇳 Vietnam	27	moderate	cyclone	Peak Cyclone season for Vietnam (historical: August/September/October)
🇲🇵 MP	27	moderate	cyclone	Peak Cyclone season for MP (historical: August/September/October)
🇬🇺 GU	27	moderate	cyclone	Peak Cyclone season for GU (historical: August/September/October)
🇦🇺 Australia	25	moderate	cyclone	Event frequency 2.0x above average for Cyclone in Australia
🇲🇽 Mexico	23	moderate	cyclone	—

Methodology

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:

Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration

Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →

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