Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: Jun 30, 2026, 8:02 PM
Top Countries — weather
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 60 | high |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 55 | elevated |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba | 54 | elevated |
| 🇬🇺 GU | 54 | elevated |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 54 | elevated |
| 🇭🇰 HK | 53 | elevated |
| 🇲🇵 MP | 52 | elevated |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 51 | elevated |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 51 | elevated |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 50 | elevated |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
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