Calamity Forecast Index

7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.

Last updated: Mar 19, 2026, 5:23 PM

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Top Countries — weather

Country	CFI Score	Risk Level	Hazard	Primary Driver
🇷🇺 Russia	50	elevated	weather	Event frequency 10.0x above average for Severe Weather in Russia
🇭🇷 Croatia	50	elevated	weather	Event frequency 8.5x above average for Severe Weather in HR
🇲🇽 Mexico	48	elevated	weather	Event frequency 2.0x above average for Severe Weather in Mexico
🇵🇱 Poland	46	elevated	weather	Event frequency 4.0x above average for Severe Weather in PL
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina	46	elevated	weather	Event frequency 10.0x above average for Severe Weather in BA
🇸🇮 Slovenia	46	elevated	weather	Event frequency 8.0x above average for Severe Weather in SI
🇮🇹 Italy	46	elevated	weather	High historical recurrence for Severe Weather in Italy
🇩🇪 Germany	45	elevated	weather	Event frequency 1.9x above average for Severe Weather in Germany
🇨🇭 Switzerland	45	elevated	weather	Event frequency 10.0x above average for Severe Weather in CH
🇬🇷 Greece	45	elevated	weather	Event frequency 6.0x above average for Severe Weather in Greece

Methodology

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:

Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration

Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →

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