Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: Jul 13, 2026, 11:27 PM
Top Countries — flood
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 51 | elevated |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 50 | elevated |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 49 | elevated |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 46 | elevated |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 46 | elevated |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 45 | elevated |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | 44 | elevated |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 41 | elevated |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 41 | elevated |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 41 | elevated |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
Access the Forecast API — try free for 14 days.
Get API Key →