Calamity Forecast Index

7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.

Last updated: Aug 28, 2026, 2:35 AM

All earthquake fire flood cyclone volcano drought weather tsunami landslide solar storm

Top Countries — earthquake

Country	CFI Score	Risk Level	Hazard	Primary Driver
🇮🇩 Indonesia	46	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 4.7x above average for Earthquake in Indonesia
🇺🇸 United States	46	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 10.0x above average for Earthquake in United States
🇯🇵 Japan	46	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 6.3x above average for Earthquake in Japan
🇵🇪 Peru	46	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 5.9x above average for Earthquake in Peru
🇨🇳 China	42	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 2.3x above average for Earthquake in China
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste	41	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 2.0x above average for Earthquake in TL
🇲🇽 Mexico	41	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 1.9x above average for Earthquake in Mexico
🇸🇴 Somalia	41	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 4.0x above average for Earthquake in Somalia
🇻🇺 Vanuatu	41	elevated	earthquake	Event frequency 2.0x above average for Earthquake in VU
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea	40	elevated	earthquake	High historical recurrence for Earthquake in Papua New Guinea

Methodology

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:

Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration

Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →

Access the Forecast API — try free for 14 days.

Get API Key →