Calamity Forecast Index

7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.

Last updated: Apr 14, 2026, 12:20 AM

All earthquake fire flood cyclone volcano drought weather tsunami landslide solar storm

Top Countries — volcano

Country	CFI Score	Risk Level	Hazard	Primary Driver
🇺🇸 United States	37	moderate	volcano	High historical recurrence for Volcanic Activity in United States
🇮🇩 Indonesia	31	moderate	volcano	High historical recurrence for Volcanic Activity in Indonesia
🇳🇿 New Zealand	31	moderate	volcano	Event frequency 4.0x above average for Volcanic Activity in New Zealand
🇵🇭 Philippines	27	moderate	volcano	Event frequency 2.0x above average for Volcanic Activity in Philippines

Methodology

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:

Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration

Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →

Access the Forecast API — try free for 14 days.

Get API Key →