Calamity
Live Map

Rating

Armenia risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentAindex 10.0/100
Operational statusYellow, expired
Last updated13d ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-09-28 23:33:44 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-29 01:33:44 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity87.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI22.4/100
CFI activity proxy4140.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 39/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 11 → 10Orange → Yellow14d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 7.8population component 7.1 → 2.4

    Operational status changed from orange to yellow. Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributed. severity component 8.8 → 7.8. population component 7.1 → 2.4. Context: EVENT: Large Wildfire — AM Detected: 2026-09-27T10:56:00.000Z CalamityScore: 39/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 24,198 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: AM. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 10 → 11Yellow → Orange15d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 8.8population component 4.1 → 7.1
  3. AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Yellow16d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 4.1
  4. AtoAindex 8 → 8Yellow → Green16d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6
  5. BtoAindex 30 → 8Green → Yellow18d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 8)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.2 → 5.4population component 92.6 → 0.0forecast component 30.0 → 40.5
  6. AtoBindex 8 → 3018d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 8 → 30)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 160) (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 18.2population component 0.0 → 92.6forecast component 42.0 → 30.0
  7. AtoAindex 13 → 8Yellow → Green21d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 5.4population component 7.2 → 0.0
  8. AtoAindex 8 → 13Green → Yellow23d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 12.4population component 0.0 → 7.2forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
  9. AtoAindex 13 → 8Yellow → Green23d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 3.6population component 6.8 → 0.0forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
  10. AtoAindex 8 → 13Green → Yellow24d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 12.4population component 0.0 → 6.8forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
  11. AtoAindex 10 → 8Yellow → Green24d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 3.6population component 4.5 → 0.0forecast component 39.0 → 40.5
  12. AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Yellow25d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 4.5forecast component 40.5 → 39.0
  13. AtoAindex 14 → 8Yellow → Green25d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.6 → 3.6population component 6.2 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 40.5
  14. BtoAindex 28 → 14Orange → Yellow27d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 14)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.4 → 15.6cascade component 65.0 → 0.0population component 4.9 → 6.2forecast component 42.0 → 43.5
  15. AtoBindex 14 → 28Yellow → Orange27d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 28)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 52); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 15.6 → 10.4cascade component 0.0 → 65.0population component 6.2 → 4.9forecast component 43.5 → 42.0
  16. AtoAindex 9 → 1427d ago
    Activity score changed from 9 to 14Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 15.6population component 1.4 → 6.2forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
  17. AtoAindex 15 → 927d ago
    Activity score changed from 15 to 9Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.6 → 7.8population component 7.1 → 1.4forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
  18. AtoAindex 10 → 1528d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 15Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 16.6population component 5.5 → 7.1forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
  19. AtoAindex 16 → 19Green → Yellow29d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39)
  20. AtoAindex 18 → 16Orange → Green29d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
Forecast for ArmeniaActive events in Armenia