Calamity
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Rating

Azerbaijan risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentAindex 10.0/100
Operational statusOrange, expired
Last updated12d ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-09-29 23:44:04 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-30 01:44:04 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity109.6/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI22.3/100
CFI activity proxy4140.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 48/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 10 → 11Yellow → Orange13d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 9.6population component 2.1 → 2.4forecast component 40.5 → 42.0

    Operational status changed from yellow to orange. Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 7.8 → 9.6. population component 2.1 → 2.4. forecast component 40.5 → 42.0. Context: EVENT: Large Wildfire — AZ Detected: 2026-09-28T10:38:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: critical URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 23,532 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: AZ. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 15 → 1013d ago
    Activity score changed from 15 to 10Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 7.8population component 3.4 → 2.1forecast component 45.0 → 40.5
  3. AtoAindex 9 → 1516d ago
    Activity score changed from 9 to 15Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 18.4population component 0.0 → 3.4forecast component 42.0 → 45.0
  4. AtoAindex 8 → 9Green → Yellow18d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 0.0forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
  5. AtoAindex 10 → 8Yellow → Green18d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 3.6population component 1.6 → 0.0
  6. AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Yellow23d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 1.6
  7. AtoAindex 10 → 8Yellow → Green24d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 3.6population component 1.9 → 0.0
  8. AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Yellow24d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 1.9
  9. AtoAindex 10 → 8Yellow → Green24d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 3.6population component 1.8 → 0.0
  10. AtoAindex 7 → 10Green → Yellow25d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 1.8
  11. AtoAindex 13 → 15Green → Yellow37d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  12. AtoAindex 12 → 16Green → Yellow39d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 39)
  13. AtoAindex 12 → 13Green → Yellow45d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 35)
  14. AtoAindex 12 → 15Green → Orange66d ago
    Operational status changed from green to orangeLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 44)
  15. AtoAindex 12 → 15Green → Orange66d ago
    Operational status changed from green to orangeLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 44)
  16. AtoAindex 12 → 15Green → Orange66d ago
    Operational status changed from green to orangeLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 44)
  17. AtoAindex 13 → 15Yellow → Orange68d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 52)
  18. AtoAindex 12 → 13Green → Yellow70d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  19. AtoAindex 12 → 13Green → Yellow70d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  20. AtoAindex 18 → 19Yellow → Orange74d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 44)
Forecast for AzerbaijanActive events in Azerbaijan