Rating
Belgium risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 40.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated10m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity36.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy37.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Weather
Mean event index: 46/100 · Eligible records: 4
Rating history
- BtoBindex 32 → 40Green → Yellow1h agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Namur, Belgium (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 36.8forecast component 33.0 → 37.5
Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Namur, Belgium (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributed. severity component 18.4 → 36.8. forecast component 33.0 → 37.5. Context: EVENT: Moderate weather warning — Namur, Belgium — BE Detected: 2026-10-12T03:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 46/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 1,430,851 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: BE. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoBindex 40 → 32Yellow → Green3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Namur, Belgium (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 36.8 → 18.4forecast component 37.5 → 33.0
- BtoBindex 28 → 40Green → Yellow4d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Liège, Belgium (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 36.8population component 92.1 → 100.0forecast component 34.5 → 37.5
- AtoBindex 19 → 28Orange → Green8d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 28)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 10.6population component 44.2 → 92.1forecast component 37.5 → 34.5
- BtoAindex 32 → 198d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 19)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.2 → 11.4population component 98.3 → 44.2forecast component 42.0 → 37.5
- AtoBindex 7 → 32Green → Orange8d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 7 → 32)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 14.2population component 0.0 → 98.3forecast component 34.5 → 42.0
- BtoAindex 32 → 7Orange → Green9d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.2 → 3.6population component 98.3 → 0.0forecast component 42.0 → 34.5
- AtoBindex 19 → 329d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 32)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 14.2population component 44.0 → 98.3forecast component 37.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 19Green → Orange9d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 11.4population component 0.0 → 44.0forecast component 34.5 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 18 → 7Orange → Green10d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 3.6population component 44.0 → 0.0forecast component 37.5 → 34.5
- BtoAindex 29 → 1811d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 29 → 18)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 9.6population component 92.6 → 44.0forecast component 39.0 → 37.5
- AtoBindex 18 → 2912d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 29)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 10.6population component 44.2 → 92.6
- AtoAindex 7 → 18Green → Orange13d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 7.8population component 0.0 → 44.2
- AtoAindex 19 → 7Orange → Green13d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 1.8population component 44.2 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 19Green → Orange15d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 44.2forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- BtoAindex 21 → 7Orange → Green15d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 3.6population component 44.3 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
- AtoBindex 18 → 2116d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 21)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 13.2population component 44.3 → 44.3forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- BtoAindex 30 → 1816d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 18)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 7.8population component 92.5 → 44.3forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
- BtoBindex 39 → 30Red → Orange16d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.2 → 12.4forecast component 34.5 → 43.5
- BtoBindex 30 → 3917d agoActivity score changed from 30 to 39Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 41.2 → 38.2population component 44.1 → 92.5forecast component 33.8 → 34.5