Rating
Botswana risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 22.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated26m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 21:01:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 23:01:22 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity34.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI2.7/100
CFI activity proxy49.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 43/100 · Eligible records: 4
Rating history
- AtoBindex 13 → 22Green → Yellow5h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 22)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 34.2population component 0.0 → 2.7
Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 22). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 14.4 → 34.2. population component 0.0 → 2.7. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — BW Detected: 2026-10-12T12:40:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 21,036 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: BW. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 25 → 13Yellow → Green21h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 25 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.6 → 14.4population component 1.1 → 0.0
- CtoBindex 51 → 25Orange → Yellow21h agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 25)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.8 → 44.6cascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 1.8 → 1.1forecast component 44.3 → 49.5
- CtoCindex 45 → 512d agoActivity score changed from 45 to 51Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 33.8 → 46.8population component 1.1 → 1.8forecast component 42.8 → 44.3
- BtoCindex 29 → 452d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 29 → 45)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 12.4 → 33.8cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 1.4 → 1.1forecast component 40.5 → 42.8
- AtoBindex 18 → 293d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 29)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 27.0 → 12.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.0 → 1.4forecast component 49.5 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 14 → 18Yellow → Orange9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 27.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 14Green → Yellow9d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 16.2
- AtoAindex 12 → 9Yellow → Green9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.6 → 3.6
- BtoAindex 34 → 12Orange → Yellow10d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 12)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.4 → 12.6cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 46.5 → 49.5
- AtoBindex 14 → 3411d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 34)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 16.2 → 24.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0forecast component 49.5 → 46.5
- CtoAindex 55 → 1411d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 55 → 14)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 54.4 → 16.2cascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.8 → 49.5
- CtoCindex 50 → 5512d agoActivity score changed from 50 to 55Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.8 → 54.4cascade component 90.0 → 100.0forecast component 50.3 → 51.8
- DtoCindex 74 → 5012d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 74 → 50)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 96.6 → 49.8cascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 8.8 → 0.0forecast component 55.5 → 50.3
- DtoDindex 66 → 7413d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 74Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 76.6 → 96.6forecast component 54.8 → 55.5
- CtoDindex 50 → 6613d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 50 → 66)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 45.0 → 76.6cascade component 90.0 → 100.0
- DtoCindex 75 → 50Red → Orange13d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 75 → 50)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 45.0cascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 6.7 → 8.8forecast component 55.5 → 54.8
- DtoDindex 74 → 75Orange → Red14d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)population component 2.7 → 6.7
- DtoDindex 65 → 7415d agoActivity score changed from 65 to 74Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 80.8 → 100.0population component 2.5 → 2.7forecast component 51.0 → 55.5
- CtoDindex 50 → 6515d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 50 → 65)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.0 → 80.8cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 2.5 → 2.5forecast component 49.5 → 51.0