Rating
Belarus risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-04 01:30:50 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-04 03:30:50 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 9/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- AtoAindex 10 → 9Yellow → Green10d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 7.2forecast component 43.5 → 37.5
Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributed. severity component 9.0 → 7.2. forecast component 43.5 → 37.5. Context: EVENT: Moderate Wildfire — BY Detected: 2026-10-01T11:25:00.000Z CalamityScore: 18/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: BY. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 9 → 10Green → Yellow11d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 9.0forecast component 40.5 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 10 → 9Yellow → Green11d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedforecast component 48.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Yellow12d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.2forecast component 42.0 → 48.0
- AtoAindex 13 → 8Yellow → Green12d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 3.6population component 5.9 → 0.0forecast component 45.0 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 13Green → Yellow13d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 12.4population component 0.0 → 5.9
- AtoAindex 13 → 9Yellow → Green24d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 5.4population component 5.9 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 13Green → Yellow25d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 12.4population component 0.0 → 5.9forecast component 42.0 → 45.0
- AtoAindex 11 → 8Yellow → Green25d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 5.4forecast component 45.0 → 42.0
- BtoAindex 28 → 11Orange → Yellow26d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 11)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.4 → 10.8cascade component 65.0 → 0.0forecast component 45.8 → 45.0
- AtoBindex 11 → 28Yellow → Orange26d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 28)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 40); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.8 → 13.4cascade component 0.0 → 65.0forecast component 45.0 → 45.8
- AtoAindex 9 → 11Green → Yellow26d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 10.8
- AtoAindex 20 → 14Yellow → Green30d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
- BtoAindex 23 → 15Orange → Yellow31d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 15)Operational status changed from orange to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- AtoBindex 20 → 23Yellow → Orange31d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 23)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 16 → 16Green → Yellow32d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- AtoAindex 14 → 16Green → Yellow41d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 35)
- AtoBindex 20 → 23Green → Yellow43d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 23)Operational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
- BtoAindex 21 → 1744d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 17)Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
- AtoBindex 16 → 2144d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 21)Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)