Rating
Canada risk rating
Activity gradeDindex 65.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated18m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-08 05:24:48 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-08 07:24:48 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity97.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy37.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Weather
Mean event index: 37/100 · Eligible records: 12
Fire
Mean event index: 36/100 · Eligible records: 1
Asteroid
Mean event index: 4/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- CtoDindex 53 → 662h agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 53 → 66)Current dominant event: squall watch in effect (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.2 → 100.0forecast component 37.5 → 38.0
Country rating changed from C to D (score 53 → 66). Current dominant event: squall watch in effect (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed. severity component 68.2 → 100.0. forecast component 37.5 → 38.0. Context: EVENT: squall watch in effect — CA Detected: 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 53/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 5,612,118 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: CA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoCindex 66 → 532h agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 66 → 53)Current dominant event: squall watch in effect (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 68.2forecast component 40.5 → 37.5
- DtoDindex 66 → 66Yellow → Orange6h agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedforecast component 39.5 → 40.5
- DtoDindex 61 → 669h agoActivity score changed from 61 to 66Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 87.4 → 100.0forecast component 38.5 → 39.5
- CtoDindex 48 → 6110h agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 48 → 61)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 55.4 → 87.4forecast component 37.0 → 38.5
- BtoCindex 39 → 4810h agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 48)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 33.8 → 55.4forecast component 36.0 → 37.0
- CtoBindex 52 → 3911h agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 52 → 39)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.4 → 33.8forecast component 30.0 → 36.0
- CtoCindex 46 → 5213h agoActivity score changed from 46 to 52Current dominant event: yellow advisory - fog - in effect (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.2 → 68.4forecast component 28.5 → 30.0
- DtoCindex 66 → 4613h agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 66 → 46)Current dominant event: yellow advisory - fog - in effect (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 53.2forecast component 36.8 → 28.5
- BtoDindex 35 → 661d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 35 → 66)Current dominant event: yellow advisory - frost - in effect (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 73.6 → 100.0population component 2.2 → 100.0forecast component 32.3 → 36.8
- DtoBindex 61 → 351d agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 61 → 35)Current dominant event: yellow warning - wind - in effect (CalamityScore 28); cause of change not attributedseverity component 88.2 → 73.6population component 100.0 → 2.2forecast component 39.0 → 32.3
- DtoDindex 66 → 611d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 61Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 88.2forecast component 40.0 → 39.0
- BtoDindex 30 → 66Green → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 30 → 66)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.2 → 100.0forecast component 33.0 → 40.0
- AtoBindex 3 → 301d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 3 → 30)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 0.8 → 12.2population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 15.0 → 33.0
- BtoAindex 33 → 32d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 33 → 3)Current dominant event: Fireball/Bolide — 2026-09-11 (CalamityScore 4); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.6 → 0.8population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 35.5 → 15.0
- BtoBindex 38 → 33Yellow → Green2d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.4 → 18.6
- BtoBindex 30 → 38Green → Yellow2d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.2 → 31.4forecast component 33.0 → 35.5
- AtoBindex 3 → 302d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 3 → 30)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 0.8 → 12.2population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 15.0 → 33.0
- BtoAindex 32 → 33d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 3)Current dominant event: Fireball/Bolide — 2026-09-11 (CalamityScore 4); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 0.8population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 15.0
- AtoBindex 3 → 323d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 3 → 32)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 0.8 → 11.4population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 15.0 → 51.0