Rating
Central African Republic risk rating
Last activity grade, not currentAindex 10.0/100
Operational statusGreen, expired
Last updated8d ago
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-04 01:30:50 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-04 03:30:50 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity10.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI0.0/100
CFI activity proxy40.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 18/100 · Eligible records: 3
Rating history
- AtoAindex 11 → 10Yellow → Green8d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.6 → 10.8
Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributed. severity component 12.6 → 10.8. Context: EVENT: Moderate Wildfire — CF Detected: 2026-10-03T12:17:00.000Z CalamityScore: 18/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: CF. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 6 → 11Green → Yellow9d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 12.6forecast component 36.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 10 → 6Yellow → Green9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 1.8forecast component 42.0 → 36.0
- AtoAindex 17 → 10Orange → Yellow16d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.4 → 9.0forecast component 51.0 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 14 → 17Yellow → Orange17d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.0 → 23.4forecast component 48.0 → 51.0
- AtoAindex 11 → 14Green → Yellow17d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 18.0forecast component 46.5 → 48.0
- AtoAindex 15 → 11Yellow → Green17d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.0 → 10.8forecast component 49.5 → 46.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 15Green → Yellow18d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 18.0forecast component 42.0 → 49.5
- AtoAindex 10 → 9Yellow → Green19d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Yellow20d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 9.0forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 13 → 8Yellow → Green20d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 3.6forecast component 46.5 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 1322d agoActivity score changed from 8 to 13Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 14.4forecast component 39.0 → 46.5
- AtoAindex 7 → 8Green → Yellow22d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 5.4
- AtoAindex 13 → 7Yellow → Green23d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 3.6forecast component 46.5 → 39.0
- BtoAindex 22 → 13Orange → Yellow26d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 13)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.0 → 14.4population component 0.7 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 46.5
- CtoBindex 45 → 2227d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 45 → 22)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.2 → 34.0cascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 0.0 → 0.7forecast component 47.3 → 52.5
- BtoCindex 21 → 4527d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 21 → 45)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 40); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 32.2 → 31.2cascade component 0.0 → 100.0population component 0.7 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 47.3
- AtoBindex 14 → 21Yellow → Orange27d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 21)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 32.2population component 0.0 → 0.7forecast component 49.5 → 52.5
- AtoAindex 18 → 13Yellow → Green36d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenMinor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
- AtoAindex 17 → 18Green → Yellow37d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)