Calamity
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Rating

Egypt risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 37.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated26m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 21:01:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 23:01:22 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity2424.0/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100100.0/100
CFI activity proxy5151.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 30/100 · Eligible records: 4

Rating history

  1. BtoBindex 32 → 37Green → Yellow17h ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 22.2

    Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 11.4 → 22.2. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — EG Detected: 2026-10-12T00:52:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 3,301,294 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: EG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoBindex 10 → 322d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 32)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 11.4population component 0.0 → 100.0
  3. BtoAindex 37 → 10Yellow → Green4d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 37 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.0 → 5.4population component 100.0 → 0.0
  4. AtoBindex 11 → 37Green → Yellow5d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 37)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 24.0population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 52.5 → 51.0
  5. BtoAindex 40 → 11Yellow → Green6d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 40 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.0 → 9.0population component 100.0 → 0.0
  6. BtoBindex 35 → 40Green → Yellow7d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.6 → 30.0forecast component 51.0 → 52.5
  7. AtoBindex 10 → 358d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 18.6population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 52.5 → 51.0
  8. CtoAindex 54 → 10Red → Green8d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 54 → 10)Operational status changed from red to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.4 → 5.4population component 100.0 → 0.0
  9. BtoCindex 27 → 54Orange → Red8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 27 → 54)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 66.4population component 19.0 → 100.0
  10. DtoBindex 61 → 27Red → Orange8d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 61 → 27)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.2 → 38.4population component 100.0 → 19.0
  11. CtoDindex 49 → 61Orange → Red9d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 49 → 61)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.2 → 82.2forecast component 51.0 → 52.5
  12. CtoCindex 43 → 499d ago
    Activity score changed from 43 to 49Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 53.2
  13. AtoCindex 14 → 43Yellow → Orange9d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 14 → 43)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 38.4population component 0.0 → 100.0
  14. CtoAindex 55 → 14Red → Yellow9d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 55 → 14)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.2 → 16.2population component 100.0 → 0.0
  15. CtoCindex 50 → 55Orange → Red10d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 55.2 → 68.2
  16. BtoCindex 40 → 5010d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 50)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.2 → 55.2
  17. CtoBindex 54 → 4010d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 54 → 40)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.0 → 31.2forecast component 52.5 → 51.0
  18. CtoCindex 49 → 5411d ago
    Activity score changed from 49 to 54Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.8 → 66.0forecast component 51.0 → 52.5
  19. BtoCindex 21 → 4911d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 21 → 49)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.4 → 52.8population component 0.0 → 100.0
  20. DtoBindex 61 → 21Red → Orange11d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 61 → 21)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.0 → 32.4population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 58.5 → 51.0
Forecast for EgyptActive events in Egypt