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Rating

Ethiopia risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 13.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated26m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 21:01:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 23:01:22 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity1211.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI55.1/100
CFI activity proxy5151.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 59/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 19 → 16Yellow → Green1d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.2 → 18.4population component 0.8 → 4.1

    Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 28.2 → 18.4. population component 0.8 → 4.1. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ET Detected: 2026-10-11T11:25:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 31,404 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: ET. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 17 → 19Green → Yellow2d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.8 → 28.2population component 0.8 → 0.8
  3. BtoAindex 26 → 17Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.2 → 22.8population component 0.8 → 0.8
  4. AtoBindex 16 → 26Green → Yellow3d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 26)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 46.2population component 0.0 → 0.8
  5. AtoAindex 10 → 163d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 21.6
  6. BtoAindex 24 → 10Yellow → Green3d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 24 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 5.4
  7. AtoBindex 11 → 24Green → Yellow4d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 24)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.6 → 40.2
  8. BtoAindex 35 → 11Yellow → Green5d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 67.0 → 8.6population component 1.1 → 0.0
  9. CtoBindex 44 → 356d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 91.0 → 67.0population component 1.4 → 1.1
  10. BtoCindex 35 → 447d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.6 → 91.0population component 1.5 → 1.4
  11. CtoBindex 45 → 357d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 45 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 92.8 → 66.6population component 1.6 → 1.5
  12. BtoCindex 35 → 458d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 45)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.4 → 92.8population component 2.2 → 1.6
  13. BtoBindex 23 → 358d ago
    Activity score changed from 23 to 35Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.0 → 68.4population component 0.0 → 2.2
  14. CtoBindex 44 → 23Orange → Yellow8d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 23)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 90.0 → 38.0population component 0.4 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 51.0
  15. CtoCindex 48 → 44Red → Orange8d ago
    Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 90.0population component 2.0 → 0.4forecast component 54.0 → 52.5
  16. CtoCindex 48 → 48Orange → Red9d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 0.7 → 2.0
  17. BtoCindex 35 → 489d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 48)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.4 → 100.0population component 0.0 → 0.7forecast component 51.0 → 54.0
  18. CtoBindex 41 → 359d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 35)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 83.4 → 68.4population component 1.3 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 51.0
  19. BtoCindex 32 → 4110d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 32 → 41)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 60.0 → 83.4forecast component 51.0 → 52.5
  20. AtoBindex 17 → 32Yellow → Orange10d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 32)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.2 → 60.0population component 2.4 → 1.3
Forecast for EthiopiaActive events in Ethiopia