Rating
Guatemala risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-09-21 15:13:45 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-21 17:13:45 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 48/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoBindex 6 → 27Green → Yellow22d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 6 → 27)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 22.5 → 19.5
Country rating changed from A to B (score 6 → 27). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 5.4 → 9.6. population component 0.0 → 100.0. forecast component 22.5 → 19.5. Context: EVENT: Drought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador — GT Detected: 2026-09-16T17:29:38.089Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 7,391,544 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area HISTORICAL CONTEXT: This is a notable drought event with potential for substantial impact. Location: GT region. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 27 → 6Yellow → Green22d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 27 → 6)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.2 Earthquake (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 5.4population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 19.5 → 22.5
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green28d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow28d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green28d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow29d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow29d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow29d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow29d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow29d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 32 → 7Yellow → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 7)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 7 → 32Green → Yellow29d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 7 → 32)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 48)
- BtoAindex 32 → 7Yellow → Green30d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 7)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 7 → 32Green → Yellow30d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 7 → 32)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)
- BtoAindex 31 → 4Yellow → Green30d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenFuego (Guatemala) - Report for 20 August-26 August 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 14)
- AtoBindex 4 → 31Green → Yellow30d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 4 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowDrought is on going in The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, El Salvador (CalamityScore 54)