Rating
Croatia risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 07:12:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 09:12:22 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 31/100 · Eligible records: 6
Rating history
- AtoBindex 6 → 30Green → Yellow9h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 6 → 30)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Middle Dalmatia region, Croatia (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 38.8population component 0.0 → 40.8forecast component 36.0 → 40.5
Country rating changed from A to B (score 6 → 30). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Middle Dalmatia region, Croatia (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributed. severity component 1.8 → 38.8. population component 0.0 → 40.8. forecast component 36.0 → 40.5. Context: EVENT: Severe weather warning — Middle Dalmatia region, Croatia — HR Detected: 2026-10-12T22:01:01.000Z CalamityScore: 49/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 149,830 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: HR. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 10 → 6Yellow → Green10d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 1.8population component 1.3 → 0.0forecast component 42.0 → 36.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 10Green → Yellow12d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 1.3
- BtoAindex 23 → 7Yellow → Green18d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 7)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.0 → 1.8population component 35.8 → 0.0forecast component 41.3 → 42.0
- AtoBindex 17 → 2321d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 23)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Split, Croatia (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 23.0population component 25.0 → 35.8forecast component 37.5 → 41.3
- AtoAindex 8 → 17Green → Yellow24d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Split, Croatia (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 16.2population component 0.0 → 25.0forecast component 42.0 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 13 → 824d agoActivity score changed from 13 to 8Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.0 → 3.6population component 10.8 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 1324d agoActivity score changed from 8 to 13Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Rijeka, Croatia (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 11.0population component 0.0 → 10.8forecast component 42.0 → 39.8
- AtoAindex 19 → 8Yellow → Green25d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 3.6population component 27.9 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 19Green → Yellow25d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Rijeka, Croatia (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 18.4population component 0.0 → 27.9forecast component 42.0 → 39.8
- BtoAindex 27 → 8Yellow → Green25d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 27 → 8)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.8 → 3.6population component 50.7 → 0.0forecast component 41.3 → 42.0
- AtoBindex 8 → 27Green → Yellow25d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 8 → 27)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Rijeka, Croatia (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 25.8population component 0.0 → 50.7forecast component 42.0 → 41.3
- AtoAindex 13 → 8Yellow → Green25d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.4 → 3.6population component 10.8 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 13Green → Yellow25d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Rijeka, Croatia (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 13.4population component 0.0 → 10.8forecast component 42.0 → 39.8
- AtoAindex 13 → 7Yellow → Green25d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.6 → 1.8population component 10.8 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 11 → 13Green → Yellow26d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Rijeka, Croatia (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 11.6forecast component 37.5 → 39.8
- AtoAindex 12 → 11Orange → Green28d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Rijeka, Croatia (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 7.4population component 8.9 → 10.8forecast component 42.0 → 37.5
- BtoAindex 22 → 1729d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 17)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53)
- AtoBindex 17 → 2229d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 22)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53)
- BtoAindex 22 → 1729d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 17)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53)