Rating
Israel risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 11:52:07 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 13:52:07 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 42/100 · Eligible records: 5
Rating history
- AtoCindex 7 → 42Green → Yellow1h agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 7 → 42)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kinarot Valley, Israel (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 42.2population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 40.5 → 31.5
Country rating changed from A to C (score 7 → 42). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kinarot Valley, Israel (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributed. severity component 1.8 → 42.2. population component 0.0 → 100.0. forecast component 40.5 → 31.5. Context: EVENT: Moderate weather warning — Kinarot Valley, Israel — IL Detected: 2026-10-12T08:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 46/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 1,966,250 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: IL. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 28 → 7Orange → Green12d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.6 → 1.8population component 64.6 → 0.0forecast component 46.5 → 40.5
- AtoBindex 7 → 28Green → Orange13d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 7 → 28)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 19.6population component 0.0 → 64.6forecast component 40.5 → 46.5
- BtoAindex 25 → 7Orange → Green14d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 25 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.6 → 1.8population component 68.4 → 0.0
- AtoBindex 13 → 2515d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 25)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.8 → 13.6population component 10.1 → 68.4
- BtoAindex 25 → 1315d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 25 → 13)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.6 → 12.8population component 68.4 → 10.1
- AtoBindex 8 → 25Green → Orange15d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 8 → 25)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 13.6population component 0.0 → 68.4
- BtoAindex 34 → 8Orange → Green19d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 8)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.6 → 3.6population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 46.5 → 40.5
- AtoBindex 8 → 34Green → Orange21d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 8 → 34)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 18.6population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 40.5 → 46.5
- AtoAindex 19 → 8Orange → Green25d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 3.6population component 37.7 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 40.5
- BtoAindex 40 → 1926d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 40 → 19)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.8 → 13.2cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 38.3 → 37.7forecast component 51.8 → 43.5
- AtoBindex 19 → 4026d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 40)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 75); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 13.2 → 16.8cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 37.7 → 38.3forecast component 43.5 → 51.8
- AtoAindex 12 → 1926d agoActivity score changed from 12 to 19Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 13.2population component 11.7 → 37.7forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 12Yellow → Orange27d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 9.6population component 1.2 → 11.7
- AtoAindex 13 → 9Orange → Yellow27d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 7.8population component 11.0 → 1.2forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 13Green → Orange27d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 11.4population component 0.0 → 11.0forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 19 → 12Orange → Green31d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenMinor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
- BtoAindex 22 → 1932d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 19)Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)
- AtoBindex 16 → 22Yellow → Orange32d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 22)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)
- AtoAindex 15 → 19Green → Orange35d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)