Rating
Japan risk rating
Activity gradeCindex 51.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated10m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity68.4/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy24.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Volcano
Mean event index: 29/100 · Eligible records: 12
Rating history
- CtoCindex 58 → 511d agoActivity score changed from 58 to 51Current dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 86.0 → 68.4
Activity score changed from 58 to 51. Current dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributed. severity component 86.0 → 68.4. Context: EVENT: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 — JP Detected: 2022-07-27T11:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 44/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 1,578,564 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: JP. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoCindex 64 → 581d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 64 → 58)Current dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 86.0forecast component 27.0 → 24.0
- CtoDindex 54 → 642d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 54 → 64)Current dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 77.2 → 100.0forecast component 24.0 → 27.0
- DtoCindex 62 → 543d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 54)Current dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.8 → 77.2forecast component 25.5 → 24.0
- CtoDindex 59 → 624d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 62)Current dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 88.8 → 94.8forecast component 24.0 → 25.5
- DtoCindex 64 → 59Orange → Yellow4d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 64 → 59)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 96.8 → 88.8forecast component 35.3 → 24.0
- AtoDindex 7 → 64Green → Orange4d agoCountry rating changed from A to D (score 7 → 64)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Sakurajima: Volcanic Alert Level 3 (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.2 → 96.8population component 4.6 → 100.0forecast component 18.0 → 35.3
- BtoAindex 27 → 77d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 27 → 7)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 162) (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.8 → 8.2population component 100.0 → 4.6
- AtoBindex 10 → 278d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 27)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 162) (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.0 → 11.8population component 18.1 → 100.0
- AtoAindex 5 → 108d agoActivity score changed from 5 to 10Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 158) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.8 → 10.0population component 0.0 → 18.1
- AtoAindex 16 → 59d agoActivity score changed from 16 to 5Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 152) (CalamityScore 29); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.0 → 5.8population component 47.2 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 13 → 16Yellow → Green9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 163) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.0 → 10.0population component 39.8 → 47.2
- BtoAindex 21 → 139d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 13)Current dominant event: Tokachidake (Japan) - Report for 16 September-22 September 2026 - New Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 7.0population component 53.5 → 39.8
- AtoBindex 17 → 219d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 21)Current dominant event: Very Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 233) (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.8 → 18.4population component 40.6 → 53.5
- BtoAindex 22 → 179d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 17)Current dominant event: Very Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 249) (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.6 → 15.8population component 47.0 → 40.6forecast component 20.3 → 18.0
- AtoBindex 14 → 2210d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 22)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 155) (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 23.6population component 39.8 → 47.0forecast component 18.0 → 20.3
- BtoAindex 30 → 1410d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 14)Current dominant event: Tokachidake (Japan) - Report for 16 September-22 September 2026 - New Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.2 → 8.8population component 100.0 → 39.8forecast component 20.3 → 18.0
- BtoBindex 26 → 30Green → Yellow10d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake — 千葉県北東部 (CalamityScore 47); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.4 → 18.2forecast component 18.0 → 20.3
- AtoBindex 11 → 2610d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 26)Current dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake — 千葉県北東部 (CalamityScore 47); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.2 → 9.4population component 10.4 → 100.0forecast component 28.5 → 18.0
- BtoAindex 26 → 1111d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 11)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 156) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 12.2population component 83.9 → 10.4