Calamity
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Rating

Kenya risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentAindex 10.0/100
Operational statusGreen, expired
Last updated7d ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-05 23:40:35 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-06 01:40:35 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity77.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI00.0/100
CFI activity proxy4848.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 36/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 16 → 107d ago
    Activity score changed from 16 to 10Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.8 → 7.2population component 6.0 → 0.0

    Activity score changed from 16 to 10. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributed. severity component 17.8 → 7.2. population component 6.0 → 0.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — KE Detected: 2026-10-05T11:38:00.000Z CalamityScore: 36/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: KE. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. CtoAindex 49 → 16Orange → Green9d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 49 → 16)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 98.6 → 17.8population component 6.4 → 6.0forecast component 54.0 → 48.0
  3. CtoCindex 41 → 499d ago
    Activity score changed from 41 to 49Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.6 → 98.6population component 0.4 → 6.4forecast component 52.5 → 54.0
  4. CtoCindex 48 → 419d ago
    Activity score changed from 48 to 41Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 99.0 → 82.6population component 1.8 → 0.4forecast component 54.0 → 52.5
  5. BtoCindex 38 → 489d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 48)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 75.8 → 99.0population component 1.3 → 1.8forecast component 52.5 → 54.0
  6. AtoBindex 14 → 38Yellow → Orange9d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 38)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 75.8population component 0.0 → 1.3forecast component 48.0 → 52.5
  7. BtoAindex 35 → 14Orange → Yellow10d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 14)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.4 → 16.2forecast component 52.5 → 48.0
  8. BtoBindex 23 → 35Yellow → Orange10d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 39.6 → 68.4forecast component 48.0 → 52.5
  9. CtoBindex 49 → 23Red → Yellow11d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 49 → 23)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 39.6population component 5.3 → 0.0forecast component 54.0 → 48.0
  10. CtoCindex 43 → 4911d ago
    Activity score changed from 43 to 49Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 85.2 → 100.0population component 5.1 → 5.3forecast component 52.5 → 54.0
  11. CtoCindex 49 → 4311d ago
    Activity score changed from 49 to 43Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 85.2population component 5.3 → 5.1forecast component 54.0 → 52.5
  12. BtoCindex 33 → 4911d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 33 → 49)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 60.4 → 100.0population component 4.6 → 5.3forecast component 49.5 → 54.0
  13. BtoBindex 40 → 3312d ago
    Activity score changed from 40 to 33Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 76.6 → 60.4population component 4.5 → 4.6forecast component 57.0 → 49.5
  14. BtoBindex 29 → 40Orange → Red12d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.0 → 76.6population component 0.5 → 4.5forecast component 55.5 → 57.0
  15. AtoBindex 16 → 29Yellow → Orange12d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 29)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.8 → 52.0population component 0.0 → 0.5forecast component 52.5 → 55.5
  16. BtoAindex 31 → 16Orange → Yellow13d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 16)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.8 → 19.8population component 22.6 → 0.0
  17. CtoBindex 54 → 31Red → Orange15d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 54 → 31)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 45.8population component 28.5 → 22.6forecast component 58.5 → 52.5
  18. CtoCindex 43 → 54Orange → Red15d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 41.2 → 100.0cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 1.8 → 28.5forecast component 59.3 → 58.5
  19. CtoCindex 52 → 43Red → Orange15d ago
    Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 96.6 → 41.2cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 23.8 → 1.8forecast component 58.5 → 59.3
  20. BtoCindex 39 → 52Orange → Red15d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 52)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 75.4 → 96.6population component 3.3 → 23.8forecast component 57.0 → 58.5
Forecast for KenyaActive events in Kenya