Rating
Lebanon risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-09-28 23:33:44 UTC · Valid until: 2026-09-29 01:33:44 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 29/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- AtoAindex 12 → 1713d agoActivity score changed from 12 to 17Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 11.4population component 11.3 → 30.5forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
Activity score changed from 12 to 17. Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 9.6 → 11.4. population component 11.3 → 30.5. forecast component 39.0 → 43.5. Context: EVENT: Large Wildfire — LB Detected: 2026-09-27T10:56:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: critical URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 305,155 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: LB. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 11 → 12Yellow → Orange13d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 9.6population component 8.0 → 11.3
- AtoAindex 7 → 11Green → Yellow15d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 8.8population component 0.0 → 8.0
- AtoAindex 12 → 7Orange → Green18d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 3.6population component 13.8 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 12Green → Orange18d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 13.8
- AtoAindex 12 → 7Orange → Green18d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 3.6population component 13.8 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 7 → 12Green → Orange18d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 13.8
- BtoAindex 22 → 7Orange → Green23d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 3.6population component 60.9 → 0.0
- AtoBindex 15 → 2225d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 22)Current dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 10.6population component 22.6 → 60.9
- BtoAindex 33 → 1525d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 33 → 15)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.2 → 11.4cascade component 65.0 → 0.0population component 25.9 → 22.6forecast component 44.3 → 39.0
- AtoBindex 13 → 3325d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 33)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 61); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 9.6 → 12.2cascade component 0.0 → 65.0population component 14.7 → 25.9forecast component 39.0 → 44.3
- BtoAindex 30 → 1326d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 13)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.0 → 9.6population component 87.7 → 14.7forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
- AtoBindex 7 → 30Green → Orange26d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 7 → 30)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 16.0population component 0.0 → 87.7forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 13 → 19Green → Orange33d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)
- BtoAindex 21 → 13Orange → Green36d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 13)Operational status changed from orange to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
- AtoBindex 19 → 2136d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 21)Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)
- AtoBindex 16 → 2136d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 21)Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)
- AtoBindex 18 → 35Yellow → Orange61d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 35)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 61)1 new cascade alert(s)
- BtoAindex 25 → 1961d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 25 → 19)Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)
- AtoBindex 19 → 2262d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 22)Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48)