Rating
Lesotho risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-03 23:34:45 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-04 01:34:45 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 18/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- BtoAindex 30 → 7Orange → Green9d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.4 → 3.6cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 39.0
Country rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 7). Operational status changed from orange to green. Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributed. severity component 15.4 → 3.6. cascade component 70.0 → 0.0. forecast component 43.5 → 39.0. Context: EVENT: Moderate Wildfire — LS Detected: 2026-10-02T12:23:00.000Z CalamityScore: 18/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: LS. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoBindex 10 → 30Yellow → Orange10d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 30)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.8 → 15.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- BtoAindex 33 → 10Orange → Yellow10d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 33 → 10)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.6 → 10.8cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 0.0 → 0.0forecast component 49.5 → 39.0
- AtoBindex 10 → 33Yellow → Orange11d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 33)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 9.0 → 19.6cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.0 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 49.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 10Green → Yellow18d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 9.0
- AtoAindex 10 → 9Yellow → Green18d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 9 → 10Green → Yellow25d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 9.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 9Yellow → Green25d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 9 → 9Green → Yellow26d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 5.4
- AtoAindex 10 → 9Yellow → Green27d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 14 → 14Green → Yellow29d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
- AtoAindex 12 → 14Green → Yellow31d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 39)
- BtoAindex 38 → 13Orange → Green31d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 13)Operational status changed from orange to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
- AtoBindex 15 → 38Yellow → Orange32d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 38)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 50)1 new cascade alert(s)
- BtoAindex 38 → 15Orange → Yellow32d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 15)Operational status changed from orange to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 35)
- AtoBindex 17 → 39Yellow → Orange32d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 39)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 57)1 new cascade alert(s)
- AtoAindex 12 → 15Green → Yellow34d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- CtoAindex 48 → 15Orange → Yellow38d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 48 → 15)Operational status changed from orange to yellowMinor Wildfire (CalamityScore 27)
- AtoCindex 15 → 48Yellow → Orange39d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 15 → 48)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 53)1 new cascade alert(s)
- CtoAindex 47 → 15Orange → Yellow39d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 47 → 15)Operational status changed from orange to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)