Rating
Libya risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 11.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated26m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 03:53:17 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 05:53:17 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity7.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI0.0/100
CFI activity proxy55.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 36/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoAindex 16 → 114h agoActivity score changed from 16 to 11Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.0 → 7.2
Activity score changed from 16 to 11. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributed. severity component 18.0 → 7.2. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — LY Detected: 2026-10-11T12:27:00.000Z CalamityScore: 36/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: LY. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 11 → 161d agoActivity score changed from 11 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 18.0
- AtoAindex 19 → 11Yellow → Green1d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.8 → 7.2population component 2.9 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 13 → 19Green → Yellow1d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.6 → 25.8population component 0.0 → 2.9
- AtoAindex 19 → 13Yellow → Green3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.6 → 12.6
- AtoAindex 16 → 19Green → Yellow3d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.0 → 26.6
- AtoAindex 11 → 163d agoActivity score changed from 11 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 18.0
- AtoAindex 18 → 11Yellow → Green4d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.4 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 16 → 18Green → Yellow4d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.0 → 23.4
- AtoAindex 11 → 165d agoActivity score changed from 11 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 18.0
- AtoAindex 18 → 11Yellow → Green5d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.4 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 16 → 18Green → Yellow5d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.0 → 23.4
- AtoAindex 10 → 166d agoActivity score changed from 10 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 18.0
- AtoAindex 18 → 10Yellow → Green6d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.8 → 5.4
- AtoAindex 10 → 18Green → Yellow6d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 24.8
- AtoAindex 18 → 10Yellow → Green7d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.8 → 5.4
- AtoAindex 16 → 18Green → Yellow7d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.2 → 24.8
- AtoAindex 11 → 168d agoActivity score changed from 11 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 18.2
- CtoAindex 52 → 11Orange → Green8d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 52 → 11)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.6 → 7.2population component 55.6 → 0.0
- DtoCindex 69 → 52Red → Orange8d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 69 → 52)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 82.6population component 100.0 → 55.6forecast component 57.0 → 55.5