Rating
Madagascar risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 05:00:31 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 07:00:31 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 11
Rating history
- CtoCindex 54 → 495h agoActivity score changed from 54 to 49Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 96.6population component 23.6 → 6.7
Activity score changed from 54 to 49. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributed. severity component 100.0 → 96.6. population component 23.6 → 6.7. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — MG Detected: 2026-10-12T11:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 55/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 19,242 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: MG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoCindex 77 → 54Orange → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 77 → 54)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 16.8 → 23.6forecast component 54.8 → 63.0
- EtoDindex 83 → 777d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 83 → 77)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 47.6 → 16.8
- DtoEindex 77 → 837d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 77 → 83)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 78); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 20.0 → 47.6
- DtoDindex 78 → 77Red → Orange9d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 72); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)population component 16.4 → 20.0forecast component 61.5 → 54.8
- CtoDindex 53 → 789d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 53 → 78)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 72); cause of change not attributed19 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 100.0population component 16.8 → 16.4forecast component 63.0 → 61.5
- DtoCindex 79 → 539d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 79 → 53)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 25.2 → 16.8forecast component 61.5 → 63.0
- EtoDindex 81 → 7911d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 81 → 79)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 72); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 35.4 → 25.2
- DtoEindex 79 → 8111d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 79 → 81)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed8 new cascade alert(s)population component 23.1 → 35.4
- EtoDindex 86 → 7912d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 86 → 79)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 72); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 55.7 → 23.1forecast component 63.8 → 61.5
- DtoEindex 79 → 8613d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 79 → 86)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed6 new cascade alert(s)population component 22.1 → 55.7
- EtoDindex 81 → 7914d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 81 → 79)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 31.8 → 22.1
- EtoEindex 86 → 8115d agoActivity score changed from 86 to 81Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed5 new cascade alert(s)population component 57.6 → 31.8
- EtoEindex 81 → 8615d agoActivity score changed from 81 to 86Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)population component 30.0 → 57.6
- EtoEindex 87 → 8117d agoActivity score changed from 87 to 81Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 62.5 → 30.0
- EtoEindex 82 → 8717d agoActivity score changed from 82 to 87Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed14 new cascade alert(s)population component 37.4 → 62.5
- DtoEindex 79 → 8217d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 79 → 82)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 24.2 → 37.4
- EtoDindex 92 → 7918d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 92 → 79)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 100.0 → 24.2forecast component 49.0 → 63.8
- DtoEindex 79 → 9218d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 79 → 92)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 24.2 → 100.0forecast component 63.8 → 49.0
- EtoDindex 81 → 7918d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 81 → 79)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 31.4 → 24.2