Calamity
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Rating

Malawi risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 12.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated23m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-13 06:42:13 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 08:42:13 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity87.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI11.0/100
CFI activity proxy5757.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 39/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. CtoAindex 46 → 12Yellow → Green6h ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 46 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.2 → 7.8population component 23.2 → 1.0

    Country rating changed from C to A (score 46 → 12). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributed. severity component 81.2 → 7.8. population component 23.2 → 1.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — MW Detected: 2026-10-12T11:02:00.000Z CalamityScore: 39/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 10,243 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: MW. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoCindex 20 → 4617h ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 20 → 46)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.4 → 81.2population component 1.5 → 23.2
  3. CtoAindex 52 → 201d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 52 → 20)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 27.4population component 18.3 → 1.5
  4. DtoCindex 65 → 52Orange → Yellow1d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 65 → 52)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 99.0 → 100.0cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 5.4 → 18.3forecast component 44.3 → 57.0
  5. DtoDindex 70 → 652d ago
    Activity score changed from 70 to 65Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 99.0cascade component 90.0 → 70.0forecast component 45.8 → 44.3
  6. DtoDindex 64 → 702d ago
    Activity score changed from 64 to 70Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 83.2 → 100.0population component 4.9 → 5.4
  7. CtoDindex 56 → 64Yellow → Orange2d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 56 → 64)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 100.0 → 83.2cascade component 0.0 → 90.0population component 39.6 → 4.9forecast component 57.0 → 45.8
  8. DtoCindex 75 → 56Orange → Yellow2d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 75 → 56)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 90.0 → 0.0population component 26.1 → 39.6forecast component 45.8 → 57.0
  9. CtoDindex 51 → 752d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 51 → 75)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 63.8 → 100.0cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 4.3 → 26.1forecast component 44.3 → 45.8
  10. CtoCindex 57 → 513d ago
    Activity score changed from 57 to 51Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.6 → 63.8cascade component 90.0 → 70.0forecast component 45.8 → 44.3
  11. DtoCindex 61 → 573d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 61 → 57)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 69.4 → 66.6cascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 4.3 → 4.3forecast component 46.5 → 45.8
  12. DtoDindex 67 → 613d ago
    Activity score changed from 67 to 61Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 85.0 → 69.4population component 4.8 → 4.3
  13. CtoDindex 54 → 67Yellow → Orange3d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 54 → 67)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 100.0 → 85.0cascade component 0.0 → 100.0population component 25.9 → 4.8forecast component 57.0 → 46.5
  14. BtoCindex 40 → 543d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 54)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.8 → 100.0population component 17.4 → 25.9
  15. CtoBindex 44 → 404d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 40)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.2 → 68.8population component 18.4 → 17.4
  16. DtoCindex 70 → 44Orange → Yellow4d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 70 → 44)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 78.2cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 27.6 → 18.4forecast component 44.3 → 57.0
  17. CtoDindex 45 → 70Yellow → Orange4d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 45 → 70)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 81.8 → 100.0cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 18.5 → 27.6forecast component 57.0 → 44.3
  18. DtoCindex 62 → 45Orange → Yellow4d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 45)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 84.6 → 81.8cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 44.3 → 57.0
  19. CtoDindex 58 → 625d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 58 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 76.8 → 84.6population component 17.6 → 18.5
  20. CtoCindex 44 → 585d ago
    Activity score changed from 44 to 58Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 47.4 → 76.8population component 3.8 → 17.6
Forecast for MalawiActive events in Malawi