Rating
Mexico risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 9.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated21m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 05:00:31 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 07:00:31 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity7.4/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI2.4/100
CFI activity proxy39.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Cyclone
Mean event index: 37/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoAindex 14 → 10Orange → Yellow10h agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Category 2 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 8.2population component 20.6 → 6.7
Operational status changed from orange to yellow. Current dominant event: Category 2 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributed. severity component 10.6 → 8.2. population component 20.6 → 6.7. Context: EVENT: Category 2 Hurricane Simon — MX Detected: 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 41/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 66,906 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: MX. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 39 → 1416h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 39 → 14)Current dominant event: Category 3 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.6 → 10.6cascade component 88.0 → 0.0population component 24.2 → 20.6forecast component 46.0 → 39.0
- CtoBindex 43 → 3923h agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 39)Current dominant event: Category 3 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 45.4 → 24.2
- CtoCindex 53 → 431d agoActivity score changed from 53 to 43Current dominant event: Category 3 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 16.4 → 13.6cascade component 70.0 → 88.0population component 100.0 → 45.4forecast component 57.0 → 46.0
- AtoCindex 18 → 53Green → Orange1d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 18 → 53)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 82); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 6.4 → 16.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 47.1 → 100.0forecast component 39.0 → 57.0
- CtoAindex 55 → 18Orange → Green1d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 55 → 18)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Cyclone Rachel (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.0 → 6.4cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 100.0 → 47.1forecast component 60.0 → 39.0
- CtoCindex 49 → 551d agoActivity score changed from 49 to 55Current dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 78); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.8 → 22.0population component 78.9 → 100.0
- CtoCindex 55 → 491d agoActivity score changed from 55 to 49Current dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 78); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.0 → 17.8population component 97.6 → 78.9
- CtoCindex 47 → 551d agoActivity score changed from 47 to 55Current dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 78); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.4 → 22.0population component 64.5 → 97.6
- CtoCindex 42 → 472d agoActivity score changed from 42 to 47Current dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 78); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.8 → 19.4population component 43.6 → 64.5
- BtoCindex 34 → 422d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 34 → 42)Current dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 73); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.6 → 16.8population component 11.0 → 43.6forecast component 57.0 → 60.0
- AtoBindex 10 → 342d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 34)Current dominant event: Category 4 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 73); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 8.8 → 14.6cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 2.3 → 11.0forecast component 39.0 → 57.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 10Yellow → Orange3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Category 3 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.0 → 8.8population component 0.0 → 2.3forecast component 37.5 → 39.0
- BtoAindex 35 → 8Orange → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 8)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Category 2 Hurricane Simon (CalamityScore 25); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.2 → 5.0cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 0.7 → 0.0forecast component 61.5 → 37.5
- AtoBindex 16 → 353d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 35)Current dominant event: SIMON-26 (CalamityScore 60); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 20.8 → 19.2cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 1.4 → 0.7forecast component 49.5 → 61.5
- AtoAindex 12 → 16Yellow → Orange4d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: SIMON-26 (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.6 → 20.8forecast component 45.0 → 49.5
- AtoAindex 16 → 12Orange → Yellow4d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: SIMON-26 (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.8 → 13.6forecast component 49.5 → 45.0
- BtoAindex 36 → 164d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 36 → 16)Current dominant event: SIMON-26 (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 20.8cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 1.7 → 1.4forecast component 62.3 → 49.5
- AtoBindex 10 → 36Yellow → Orange4d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 36)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: SIMON-26 (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 6.6 → 21.6cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.0 → 1.7forecast component 46.5 → 62.3
- AtoAindex 9 → 10Green → Yellow5d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Tropical Storm Simon (CalamityScore 11); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 6.6forecast component 43.5 → 46.5