Calamity
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Rating

Mozambique risk rating

Activity gradeDindex 69.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated10m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity100100.0/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100100.0/100
CFI activity proxy6363.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 43/100 · Eligible records: 69

Rating history

  1. EtoDindex 93 → 69Orange → Yellow6h ago
    Country rating changed from E to D (score 93 → 69)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 55.5 → 63.0

    Country rating changed from E to D (score 93 → 69). Operational status changed from orange to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed. cascade component 100.0 → 0.0. forecast component 55.5 → 63.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — MZ Detected: 2026-10-11T12:17:00.000Z CalamityScore: 64/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 117,912 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: MZ. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. EtoEindex 84 → 934d ago
    Activity score changed from 84 to 93Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed8 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 95.5 → 100.0forecast component 51.0 → 55.5
  3. EtoEindex 92 → 845d ago
    Activity score changed from 92 to 84Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0forecast component 53.3 → 51.0
  4. EtoEindex 87 → 925d ago
    Activity score changed from 87 to 92Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 67); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 85.9 → 95.5forecast component 51.8 → 53.3
  5. DtoEindex 78 → 875d ago
    Country rating changed from D to E (score 78 → 87)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 40.1 → 85.9
  6. EtoDindex 81 → 785d ago
    Country rating changed from E to D (score 81 → 78)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 40.0 → 40.1forecast component 55.5 → 51.8
  7. DtoEindex 74 → 816d ago
    Country rating changed from D to E (score 74 → 81)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 71); cause of change not attributed10 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 43.1 → 40.0forecast component 51.0 → 55.5
  8. EtoDindex 82 → 746d ago
    Country rating changed from E to D (score 82 → 74)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0forecast component 54.0 → 51.0
  9. DtoEindex 74 → 826d ago
    Country rating changed from D to E (score 74 → 82)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 100.0forecast component 51.0 → 54.0
  10. CtoDindex 57 → 74Yellow → Orange6d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 57 → 74)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 37.4 → 43.1forecast component 63.0 → 51.0
  11. AtoCindex 18 → 57Green → Yellow6d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 18 → 57)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.4 → 100.0population component 0.7 → 37.4
  12. BtoAindex 35 → 18Orange → Green6d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 18)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.2 → 21.4cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 63.0
  13. CtoBindex 41 → 356d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 24.2cascade component 90.0 → 70.0forecast component 51.8 → 51.0
  14. BtoCindex 38 → 417d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 41)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.8 → 27.0
  15. BtoBindex 28 → 38Yellow → Orange7d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 36.0 → 19.8cascade component 0.0 → 90.0population component 21.8 → 0.7forecast component 63.0 → 51.8
  16. AtoBindex 17 → 28Green → Yellow7d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 28)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.4 → 36.0population component 5.3 → 21.8
  17. BtoAindex 34 → 17Orange → Green7d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 17)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.2 → 17.4cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 63.0
  18. CtoBindex 59 → 34Red → Orange8d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 59 → 34)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.0 → 20.2population component 16.5 → 5.3forecast component 62.3 → 51.0
  19. CtoCindex 54 → 598d ago
    Activity score changed from 54 to 59Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 100.0 → 71.0cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 21.5 → 16.5forecast component 63.0 → 62.3
  20. DtoCindex 70 → 548d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 70 → 54)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedcascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 56.3 → 63.0
Forecast for MozambiqueActive events in Mozambique