Calamity
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Rating

Panama risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 16.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated23m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-13 06:42:13 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 08:42:13 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity1313.0/100
Scenario weight2828.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI43.5/100
CFI activity proxy2323.3/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Earthquake

Mean event index: 33/100 · Eligible records: 2

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 7 → 18Green → Yellow7h ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: M 6.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 8.0 → 16.2cascade component 0.0 → 28.0population component 0.1 → 3.6forecast component 22.5 → 24.0

    Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: M 6.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributed. 1 new cascade alert(s). severity component 8.0 → 16.2. cascade component 0.0 → 28.0. population component 0.1 → 3.6. forecast component 22.5 → 24.0. Context: EVENT: M 6.1 Earthquake — PA Detected: 2026-10-12T23:20:36.486Z CalamityScore: 41/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 34,517 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: PA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 15 → 710h ago
    Activity score changed from 15 to 7Current dominant event: M 5.0 Earthquake (CalamityScore 24); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.4 → 8.0cascade component 26.5 → 0.0population component 0.4 → 0.1
  3. AtoAindex 5 → 1510h ago
    Activity score changed from 5 to 15Current dominant event: M 5.0 Earthquake (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 3.2 → 13.4cascade component 0.0 → 26.5population component 0.0 → 0.4
  4. AtoAindex 14 → 5Yellow → Green20h ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.0 Earthquake (CalamityScore 16); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.2 → 3.2population component 0.9 → 0.0forecast component 30.0 → 22.5
  5. AtoAindex 8 → 14Green → Yellow1d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 24); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.4 → 22.2population component 0.1 → 0.9forecast component 24.0 → 30.0
  6. AtoAindex 14 → 8Yellow → Green1d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 20); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.8 → 10.4population component 2.3 → 0.1forecast component 30.0 → 24.0
  7. AtoAindex 5 → 14Green → Yellow1d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: M 6.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.4 → 21.8population component 0.0 → 2.3forecast component 24.0 → 30.0
  8. AtoAindex 11 → 5Yellow → Green2d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 17); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 3.4population component 2.4 → 0.0forecast component 25.5 → 24.0
  9. AtoAindex 20 → 112d ago
    Activity score changed from 20 to 11Current dominant event: M 6.0 Earthquake (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 36.8 → 16.2population component 6.7 → 2.4forecast component 26.3 → 25.5
  10. BtoAindex 27 → 202d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 27 → 20)Current dominant event: M 6.6 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.8 → 36.8population component 7.7 → 6.7forecast component 27.8 → 26.3
  11. CtoBindex 43 → 27Red → Yellow3d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 27)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: M 6.6 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.8 → 53.8population component 49.4 → 7.7forecast component 28.5 → 27.8
  12. BtoCindex 39 → 433d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 43)Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 62.6 → 71.8population component 47.0 → 49.4forecast component 27.8 → 28.5
  13. CtoBindex 44 → 393d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 39)Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 70.8 → 62.6population component 57.7 → 47.0forecast component 28.5 → 27.8
  14. CtoCindex 41 → 44Orange → Red3d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 59.6 → 70.8forecast component 36.0 → 28.5
  15. BtoCindex 39 → 413d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 41)Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.0 → 59.6forecast component 34.5 → 36.0
  16. CtoBindex 42 → 393d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 42 → 39)Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.4 → 56.0population component 58.8 → 57.7forecast component 37.5 → 34.5
  17. BtoCindex 38 → 423d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 42)Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.0 → 61.4population component 57.4 → 58.8
  18. BtoBindex 27 → 383d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 38Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.2 → 53.0population component 43.2 → 57.4forecast component 34.5 → 37.5
  19. BtoBindex 22 → 273d ago
    Activity score changed from 22 to 27Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.8 → 32.2population component 42.4 → 43.2forecast component 30.0 → 34.5
  20. AtoBindex 16 → 223d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 22)Current dominant event: M 7.7 Earthquake (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.8 → 23.8population component 41.7 → 42.4forecast component 18.0 → 30.0
Forecast for PanamaActive events in Panama