Rating
Papua New Guinea risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 03:53:17 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 05:53:17 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 38/100 · Eligible records: 1
Mean event index: 52/100 · Eligible records: 26
Rating history
- DtoDindex 77 → 76Red → Orange8d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 60); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 15.2 → 11.7forecast component 60.8 → 57.8
Operational status changed from red to orange. Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 60); cause of change not attributed. population component 15.2 → 11.7. forecast component 60.8 → 57.8. Context: EVENT: Major Wildfire — PG Detected: 2026-10-03T16:33:00.000Z CalamityScore: 60/100 Severity: high CONTEXT: Country: PG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoDindex 74 → 77Orange → Red11d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed7 new cascade alert(s)population component 1.7 → 15.2
- DtoDindex 76 → 74Red → Orange11d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 11.7 → 1.7forecast component 59.3 → 60.8
- DtoDindex 72 → 76Orange → Red22d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed6 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 1.7 → 11.7
- DtoDindex 66 → 7224d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 72Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.0 → 1.7forecast component 54.0 → 59.3
- DtoDindex 74 → 6625d agoActivity score changed from 74 to 66Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 1.5 → 0.0forecast component 56.3 → 54.0
- DtoDindex 66 → 7425d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 74Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 1.2 → 1.5forecast component 54.0 → 56.3
- DtoDindex 75 → 66Red → Orange26d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 5.1 → 1.2forecast component 59.3 → 54.0
- DtoDindex 75 → 75Orange → Red26d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)population component 4.8 → 5.1
- DtoDindex 69 → 7526d agoActivity score changed from 69 to 75Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 1.7 → 4.8forecast component 42.5 → 59.3
- DtoDindex 75 → 69Red → Orange27d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 4.8 → 1.7forecast component 60.0 → 42.5
- DtoEindex 79 → 8128d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 79 → 81)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 69)
- DtoDindex 79 → 80Orange → Red28d agoOperational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 69)4 new cascade alert(s)
- AtoDindex 9 → 79Green → Orange29d agoCountry rating changed from A to D (score 9 → 79)Operational status changed from green to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 62)6 new cascade alert(s)
- DtoAindex 79 → 9Orange → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from D to A (score 79 → 9)Operational status changed from orange to greenM 4.3 Earthquake (CalamityScore 3)
- AtoDindex 9 → 79Green → Orange29d agoCountry rating changed from A to D (score 9 → 79)Operational status changed from green to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 62)6 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoAindex 82 → 9Red → Green29d agoCountry rating changed from E to A (score 82 → 9)Operational status changed from red to greenM 4.3 Earthquake (CalamityScore 3)
- DtoEindex 80 → 8531d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 80 → 85)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 78)
- DtoDindex 77 → 78Orange → Red32d agoOperational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 62)9 new cascade alert(s)
- DtoDindex 77 → 77Red → Orange33d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 57)