Rating
Philippines risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 40.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated3m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-26 23:27:37 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-27 01:27:37 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity26.8/100
Scenario weight26.5/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy15.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Volcano
Mean event index: 57/100 · Eligible records: 2
Earthquake
Mean event index: 20/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- BtoBindex 31 → 401h agoActivity score changed from 31 to 40Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 22.8 → 26.8cascade component 0.0 → 26.5
Activity score changed from 31 to 40. Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. 1 new cascade alert(s). severity component 22.8 → 26.8. cascade component 0.0 → 26.5. Context: EVENT: Kanlaon — PH Detected: 2026-10-10T05:58:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 2,169,758 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: PH. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoBindex 46 → 311d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 46 → 31)Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 49.2 → 22.8forecast component 45.0 → 15.0
- DtoCindex 62 → 461d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 46)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.6 → 49.2forecast component 30.0 → 45.0
- CtoDindex 55 → 621d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 55 → 62)Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.8 → 94.6forecast component 45.0 → 30.0
- DtoCindex 62 → 551d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 55)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.6 → 71.8forecast component 30.0 → 45.0
- CtoDindex 55 → 621d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 55 → 62)Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.8 → 94.6forecast component 45.0 → 30.0
- DtoCindex 65 → 551d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 65 → 55)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 71.8forecast component 33.0 → 45.0
- BtoDindex 40 → 652d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 40 → 65)Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 100.0forecast component 30.0 → 33.0
- DtoBindex 71 → 40Orange → Yellow2d agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 71 → 40)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 38.4cascade component 29.0 → 0.0forecast component 27.5 → 30.0
- DtoDindex 72 → 71Yellow → Orange2d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedforecast component 33.8 → 27.5
- CtoDindex 55 → 722d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 55 → 72)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 58.8 → 100.0forecast component 31.5 → 33.8
- DtoCindex 75 → 552d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 75 → 55)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.8 → 58.8cascade component 52.0 → 29.0forecast component 27.5 → 31.5
- DtoDindex 77 → 75Orange → Yellow2d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 94.8forecast component 24.4 → 27.5
- DtoDindex 75 → 77Yellow → Orange2d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.8 → 100.0forecast component 27.5 → 24.4
- DtoDindex 77 → 75Orange → Yellow2d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 94.8forecast component 24.8 → 27.5
- DtoDindex 65 → 77Yellow → Orange3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 52.0forecast component 33.8 → 24.8
- BtoDindex 38 → 653d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 38 → 65)Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.2 → 100.0forecast component 26.0 → 33.8
- AtoBindex 15 → 38Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 38)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 34.2population component 30.7 → 100.0forecast component 31.5 → 26.0
- BtoAindex 38 → 15Yellow → Green3d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 15)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.2 → 11.4population component 100.0 → 30.7forecast component 26.0 → 31.5
- AtoBindex 15 → 38Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 38)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 34.2population component 30.7 → 100.0forecast component 31.5 → 26.0