Rating
Portugal risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 11.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated10m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity12.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI1.5/100
CFI activity proxy39.8/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 48/100 · Eligible records: 1
Weather
Mean event index: 16/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- BtoAindex 28 → 10Yellow → Green14h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.4 → 9.6population component 46.9 → 1.5forecast component 40.5 → 39.0
Country rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 10). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 32.4 → 9.6. population component 46.9 → 1.5. forecast component 40.5 → 39.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — PT Detected: 2026-10-11T13:16:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 14,877 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: PT. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoBindex 51 → 285d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 28)Current dominant event: Trovoada — Viseu (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 64.8 → 32.4population component 93.8 → 46.9forecast component 43.5 → 40.5
- CtoCindex 60 → 515d agoActivity score changed from 60 to 51Current dominant event: Trovoada — Viseu (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.4 → 64.8population component 100.0 → 93.8forecast component 45.0 → 43.5
- DtoCindex 63 → 605d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 63 → 60)Current dominant event: Trovoada — Viseu (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 91.4 → 82.4
- DtoDindex 66 → 63Orange → Yellow5d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Porto, Portugal (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 98.8 → 91.4forecast component 46.5 → 45.0
- CtoDindex 59 → 665d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 66)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Porto, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.2 → 98.8forecast component 43.5 → 46.5
- CtoCindex 56 → 59Yellow → Orange5d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Porto, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 73.8 → 81.2
- AtoCindex 12 → 56Green → Yellow5d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 12 → 56)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Porto, Portugal (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.2 → 73.8population component 5.6 → 100.0forecast component 40.5 → 43.5
- CtoAindex 49 → 12Yellow → Green6d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 49 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Castelo Branco, Portugal (CalamityScore 28); cause of change not attributedseverity component 57.8 → 11.2population component 100.0 → 5.6forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- CtoCindex 59 → 49Orange → Yellow6d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Viseu, Portugal (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.4 → 57.8forecast component 45.0 → 42.0
- CtoCindex 48 → 596d agoActivity score changed from 48 to 59Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Santarém, Portugal (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.6 → 81.4forecast component 40.5 → 45.0
- DtoCindex 67 → 48Yellow → Orange6d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 67 → 48)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Santarém, Portugal (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 53.6forecast component 46.5 → 40.5
- DtoDindex 67 → 67Orange → Yellow7d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Setúbal, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed
- DtoDindex 67 → 67Yellow → Orange7d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Setúbal, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed
- CtoDindex 50 → 677d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 50 → 67)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Setúbal, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 59.4 → 100.0forecast component 42.0 → 46.5
- BtoCindex 39 → 507d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 50)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Setúbal, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.6 → 59.4forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoBindex 17 → 397d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 39)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Setúbal, Portugal (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.6 → 31.6population component 11.1 → 100.0
- AtoAindex 15 → 17Green → Yellow7d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Évora, Portugal (CalamityScore 45); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.6 → 22.6
- AtoAindex 10 → 157d agoActivity score changed from 10 to 15Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Évora, Portugal (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.2 → 17.6population component 2.0 → 11.1forecast component 39.8 → 40.5
- DtoAindex 64 → 10Yellow → Green8d agoCountry rating changed from D to A (score 64 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Precipitação — Açores (Grupo Oriental) (CalamityScore 28); cause of change not attributedseverity component 93.0 → 9.2population component 100.0 → 2.0forecast component 42.8 → 39.8