Calamity
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Rating

Serbia risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 33.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated46m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-08 23:57:13 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-09 01:57:13 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity2626.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI7676.4/100
CFI activity proxy4746.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 3

Rating history

  1. AtoBindex 13 → 2921h ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 29)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 18.4population component 10.4 → 74.5

    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 29). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed. severity component 9.6 → 18.4. population component 10.4 → 74.5. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — RS Detected: 2026-10-08T00:24:00.000Z CalamityScore: 53/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 703,849 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: RS. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. BtoAindex 30 → 13Yellow → Green22h ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.8 → 9.6population component 46.6 → 10.4
  3. BtoBindex 26 → 30Green → Yellow1d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 34.8population component 42.5 → 46.6
  4. AtoBindex 14 → 261d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 26)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 27.0population component 15.1 → 42.5
  5. AtoAindex 5 → 141d ago
    Activity score changed from 5 to 14Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 4.0 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 15.1forecast component 19.5 → 46.5
  6. CtoAindex 41 → 5Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 41 → 5)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Air Quality — Sensor.Community (CalamityScore 20); cause of change not attributedseverity component 47.0 → 4.0population component 86.0 → 0.0forecast component 33.0 → 19.5
  7. BtoCindex 40 → 412d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 41)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.0 → 47.0population component 82.8 → 86.0
  8. BtoBindex 30 → 402d ago
    Activity score changed from 30 to 40Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.6 → 46.0population component 54.8 → 82.8
  9. CtoBindex 42 → 302d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 42 → 30)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.8 → 34.6population component 100.0 → 54.8forecast component 31.5 → 33.0
  10. BtoCindex 38 → 422d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 42)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 33.4 → 43.8
  11. CtoBindex 44 → 383d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 38)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 47.8 → 33.4
  12. BtoCindex 40 → 443d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.6 → 47.8population component 98.2 → 100.0forecast component 33.0 → 31.5
  13. BtoBindex 36 → 40Green → Yellow3d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.0 → 38.6population component 97.4 → 98.2
  14. BtoBindex 40 → 36Yellow → Green3d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.2 → 29.0population component 100.0 → 97.4forecast component 31.5 → 33.0
  15. CtoBindex 43 → 403d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 40)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.6 → 38.2forecast component 37.5 → 31.5
  16. CtoCindex 48 → 434d ago
    Activity score changed from 48 to 43Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 55.2 → 43.6
  17. CtoCindex 43 → 484d ago
    Activity score changed from 43 to 48Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.0 → 55.2population component 87.6 → 100.0forecast component 46.5 → 37.5
  18. BtoCindex 39 → 434d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 43)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.6 → 46.0population component 72.7 → 87.6
  19. BtoBindex 29 → 39Green → Yellow4d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 42.6population component 56.4 → 72.7
  20. BtoBindex 24 → 294d ago
    Activity score changed from 24 to 29Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.0 → 27.0population component 30.0 → 56.4
Forecast for SerbiaActive events in Serbia