Rating
Serbia risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 31.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated28m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-09 06:32:36 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-09 08:32:36 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity20.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI80.7/100
CFI activity proxy46.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 51/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- AtoBindex 13 → 291d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 29)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 18.4population component 10.4 → 74.5
Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 29). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed. severity component 9.6 → 18.4. population component 10.4 → 74.5. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — RS Detected: 2026-10-08T00:24:00.000Z CalamityScore: 53/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 703,849 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: RS. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 30 → 13Yellow → Green1d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.8 → 9.6population component 46.6 → 10.4
- BtoBindex 26 → 30Green → Yellow1d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 34.8population component 42.5 → 46.6
- AtoBindex 14 → 262d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 26)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 27.0population component 15.1 → 42.5
- AtoAindex 5 → 142d agoActivity score changed from 5 to 14Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 4.0 → 9.6population component 0.0 → 15.1forecast component 19.5 → 46.5
- CtoAindex 41 → 5Yellow → Green2d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 41 → 5)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Air Quality — Sensor.Community (CalamityScore 20); cause of change not attributedseverity component 47.0 → 4.0population component 86.0 → 0.0forecast component 33.0 → 19.5
- BtoCindex 40 → 412d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 41)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.0 → 47.0population component 82.8 → 86.0
- BtoBindex 30 → 402d agoActivity score changed from 30 to 40Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.6 → 46.0population component 54.8 → 82.8
- CtoBindex 42 → 302d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 42 → 30)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.8 → 34.6population component 100.0 → 54.8forecast component 31.5 → 33.0
- BtoCindex 38 → 423d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 42)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 33.4 → 43.8
- CtoBindex 44 → 383d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 38)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 47.8 → 33.4
- BtoCindex 40 → 443d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.6 → 47.8population component 98.2 → 100.0forecast component 33.0 → 31.5
- BtoBindex 36 → 40Green → Yellow3d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.0 → 38.6population component 97.4 → 98.2
- BtoBindex 40 → 36Yellow → Green3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.2 → 29.0population component 100.0 → 97.4forecast component 31.5 → 33.0
- CtoBindex 43 → 404d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 40)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.6 → 38.2forecast component 37.5 → 31.5
- CtoCindex 48 → 434d agoActivity score changed from 48 to 43Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 55.2 → 43.6
- CtoCindex 43 → 484d agoActivity score changed from 43 to 48Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.0 → 55.2population component 87.6 → 100.0forecast component 46.5 → 37.5
- BtoCindex 39 → 434d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 43)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.6 → 46.0population component 72.7 → 87.6
- BtoBindex 29 → 39Green → Yellow4d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 42.6population component 56.4 → 72.7
- BtoBindex 24 → 295d agoActivity score changed from 24 to 29Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.0 → 27.0population component 30.0 → 56.4