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Rating

Saudi Arabia risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 26.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated23m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 19:58:25 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 21:58:25 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity3434.0/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI2323.4/100
CFI activity proxy5049.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 43/100 · Eligible records: 4

Rating history

  1. BtoBindex 23 → 26Green → Yellow8h ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.8 → 34.0population component 22.4 → 23.4

    Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributed. severity component 26.8 → 34.0. population component 22.4 → 23.4. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — SA Detected: 2026-10-12T09:30:00.000Z CalamityScore: 59/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 76,825 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: SA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoBindex 18 → 2318h ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 23)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.4 → 26.8population component 2.7 → 22.4
  3. AtoAindex 10 → 184d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 18Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 25.4population component 0.0 → 2.7
  4. AtoAindex 17 → 104d ago
    Activity score changed from 17 to 10Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.0 → 7.2
  5. AtoAindex 10 → 174d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 17Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 23.0
  6. BtoAindex 24 → 10Yellow → Green5d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 24 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.6 → 7.2population component 18.1 → 0.0
  7. BtoBindex 21 → 24Green → Yellow6d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.4 → 32.6population component 18.0 → 18.1
  8. AtoBindex 10 → 216d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 21)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 25.4population component 0.0 → 18.0
  9. BtoAindex 35 → 10Orange → Green8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 10)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 58.8 → 7.2population component 22.4 → 0.0
  10. BtoBindex 25 → 35Yellow → Orange8d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.0 → 58.8population component 0.0 → 22.4
  11. AtoBindex 19 → 258d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 25)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 45.0
  12. CtoAindex 58 → 19Red → Yellow8d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 58 → 19)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 74.4 → 28.8population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 49.5
  13. CtoCindex 53 → 589d ago
    Activity score changed from 53 to 58Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 63.0 → 74.4forecast component 51.0 → 52.5
  14. CtoCindex 48 → 539d ago
    Activity score changed from 48 to 53Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.6 → 63.0forecast component 49.5 → 51.0
  15. BtoCindex 25 → 48Orange → Red9d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 25 → 48)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.0 → 52.6population component 2.2 → 100.0
  16. AtoBindex 20 → 259d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 25)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.4 → 42.0population component 0.0 → 2.2
  17. CtoAindex 41 → 20Red → Orange9d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 41 → 20)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 65.8 → 32.4population component 32.9 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 49.5
  18. BtoCindex 33 → 41Orange → Red9d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 33 → 41)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 54.4 → 65.8population component 14.5 → 32.9
  19. BtoBindex 27 → 3310d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 33Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 54.4population component 14.5 → 14.5forecast component 51.0 → 52.5
  20. AtoBindex 13 → 27Yellow → Orange10d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 27)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 40.2population component 0.0 → 14.5forecast component 49.5 → 51.0
Forecast for Saudi ArabiaActive events in Saudi Arabia