Rating
Ukraine risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 20.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated10m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity26.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI2.3/100
CFI activity proxy60.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 3
Rating history
- BtoAindex 34 → 1717h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 17)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 18.4population component 100.0 → 2.4
Country rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 17). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 13.2 → 18.4. population component 100.0 → 2.4. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — UA Detected: 2026-10-11T10:53:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 20,295 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: UA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoBindex 12 → 343d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 34)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 13.2population component 0.0 → 100.0
- BtoAindex 40 → 12Yellow → Green7d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 40 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.8 → 7.2population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 48.0 → 60.0
- CtoBindex 59 → 40Orange → Yellow8d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 59 → 40)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Chernivtsi, Ukraine (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 80.2 → 31.8
- DtoCindex 62 → 598d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 59)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Chernivtsi, Ukraine (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 80.2population component 81.7 → 100.0forecast component 38.0 → 48.0
- CtoDindex 52 → 628d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 52 → 62)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Chernivtsi, Ukraine (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 14.5 → 81.7forecast component 60.0 → 38.0
- CtoCindex 46 → 528d agoActivity score changed from 46 to 52Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 87.4 → 100.0population component 11.3 → 14.5
- DtoCindex 62 → 468d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 46)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 87.4population component 76.9 → 11.3forecast component 46.5 → 60.0
- CtoDindex 52 → 628d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 52 → 62)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Chernivtsi, Ukraine (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 72.0 → 100.0population component 82.4 → 76.9forecast component 48.0 → 46.5
- DtoCindex 65 → 529d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 65 → 52)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Chernivtsi, Ukraine (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 72.0population component 90.8 → 82.4
- CtoDindex 51 → 659d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 51 → 65)Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Chernivtsi, Ukraine (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 12.3 → 90.8forecast component 60.0 → 48.0
- CtoCindex 44 → 519d agoActivity score changed from 44 to 51Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 85.8 → 100.0population component 3.4 → 12.3
- BtoCindex 34 → 449d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 34 → 44)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.8 → 85.8population component 1.9 → 3.4
- BtoBindex 23 → 34Yellow → Orange9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.2 → 61.8population component 0.0 → 1.9
- BtoBindex 34 → 239d agoActivity score changed from 34 to 23Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 41.8 → 34.2population component 51.6 → 0.0forecast component 46.5 → 60.0
- DtoBindex 62 → 34Orange → Yellow10d agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 62 → 34)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Cherkasy, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 41.8population component 72.7 → 51.6
- CtoDindex 50 → 6210d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 50 → 62)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 91.6 → 100.0population component 21.1 → 72.7forecast component 60.0 → 46.5
- CtoCindex 43 → 5010d agoActivity score changed from 43 to 50Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.0 → 91.6population component 4.7 → 21.1
- BtoCindex 33 → 4310d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 33 → 43)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 59.8 → 82.0population component 1.9 → 4.7
- CtoBindex 41 → 3310d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 33)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 67.2 → 59.8population component 38.6 → 1.9forecast component 44.3 → 60.0