Rating
Zambia risk rating
Activity gradeDindex 62.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated27m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 21:01:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 23:01:22 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity100.0/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI60.6/100
CFI activity proxy63.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 42/100 · Eligible records: 44
Rating history
- CtoDindex 59 → 625h agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 46.2 → 60.6
Country rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 62). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. population component 46.2 → 60.6. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ZM Detected: 2026-10-12T12:40:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 129,808 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: ZM. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoCindex 54 → 596h agoActivity score changed from 54 to 59Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 24.4 → 46.2
- CtoCindex 59 → 546h agoActivity score changed from 59 to 54Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 46.2 → 24.4
- CtoCindex 52 → 598h agoActivity score changed from 52 to 59Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 13.9 → 46.2
- DtoCindex 61 → 5221h agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 61 → 52)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 59.1 → 13.9
- EtoDindex 82 → 61Orange → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 82 → 61)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 85.3 → 59.1forecast component 51.0 → 63.0
- DtoEindex 80 → 821d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 80 → 82)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 73.9 → 85.3
- EtoDindex 88 → 801d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 88 → 80)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0forecast component 53.3 → 51.0
- EtoEindex 83 → 881d agoActivity score changed from 83 to 88Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 65.7 → 73.9forecast component 51.8 → 53.3
- DtoEindex 64 → 83Yellow → Orange1d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 64 → 83)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 90.0population component 70.3 → 65.7forecast component 63.0 → 51.8
- DtoDindex 79 → 64Orange → Yellow2d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 63.0
- DtoDindex 70 → 792d agoActivity score changed from 70 to 79Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 22.8 → 70.3
- DtoDindex 77 → 702d agoActivity score changed from 77 to 70Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 22.3 → 22.8forecast component 53.3 → 51.0
- DtoDindex 61 → 77Yellow → Orange2d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 100.0population component 58.4 → 22.3forecast component 63.0 → 53.3
- DtoDindex 77 → 61Orange → Yellow2d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 63.0
- EtoDindex 82 → 773d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 82 → 77)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 90.0 → 70.0forecast component 51.8 → 51.0
- CtoEindex 56 → 82Yellow → Orange3d agoCountry rating changed from C to E (score 56 → 82)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 90.0population component 31.2 → 58.4forecast component 63.0 → 51.8
- DtoCindex 72 → 56Orange → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 72 → 56)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 33.5 → 31.2forecast component 51.0 → 63.0
- DtoDindex 62 → 72Yellow → Orange3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 61.1 → 33.5forecast component 63.0 → 51.0
- EtoDindex 81 → 62Orange → Yellow4d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 81 → 62)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedcascade component 90.0 → 0.0population component 55.0 → 61.1forecast component 51.8 → 63.0