Rating
Zimbabwe risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 18.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated27m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 10:02:42 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 12:02:42 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity21.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI0.1/100
CFI activity proxy63.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 36/100 · Eligible records: 3
Rating history
- CtoAindex 58 → 18Yellow → Green10h agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 58 → 18)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 21.8population component 40.6 → 0.1
Country rating changed from C to A (score 58 → 18). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributed. severity component 100.0 → 21.8. population component 40.6 → 0.1. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ZW Detected: 2026-10-12T12:40:00.000Z CalamityScore: 43/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: ZW. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoCindex 53 → 5819h agoActivity score changed from 53 to 58Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 18.2 → 40.6
- CtoCindex 58 → 5319h agoActivity score changed from 58 to 53Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 40.6 → 18.2
- CtoCindex 52 → 5821h agoActivity score changed from 52 to 58Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 11.6 → 40.6
- DtoCindex 62 → 521d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 52)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 62.6 → 11.6
- EtoDindex 86 → 62Orange → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 86 → 62)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 57.8 → 63.0
- DtoEindex 74 → 861d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 74 → 86)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 71); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 95.0 → 100.0population component 10.1 → 62.6
- CtoDindex 59 → 742d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 74)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 61.6 → 95.0population component 1.2 → 10.1
- DtoCindex 76 → 592d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 76 → 59)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 61.6population component 11.1 → 1.2
- CtoDindex 52 → 762d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 52 → 76)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed6 new cascade alert(s)severity component 45.0 → 100.0population component 1.2 → 11.1forecast component 56.3 → 57.8
- CtoCindex 46 → 522d agoActivity score changed from 46 to 52Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 30.6 → 45.0population component 1.0 → 1.2forecast component 55.5 → 56.3
- BtoCindex 39 → 463d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 46)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 20.0 → 30.6cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 0.0 → 1.0forecast component 54.0 → 55.5
- CtoBindex 44 → 393d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 39)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.4 → 20.0cascade component 100.0 → 90.0forecast component 55.5 → 54.0
- AtoCindex 12 → 44Green → Orange3d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 12 → 44)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 5.4 → 26.4cascade component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 63.0 → 55.5
- CtoAindex 47 → 12Orange → Green4d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 47 → 12)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 33.0 → 5.4cascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 4.2 → 0.0forecast component 55.5 → 63.0
- BtoCindex 40 → 478d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 47)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 22.4 → 33.0cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 2.0 → 4.2forecast component 54.0 → 55.5
- CtoBindex 44 → 408d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 40)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.8 → 22.4population component 4.3 → 2.0
- BtoCindex 30 → 448d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 30 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.6 → 30.8cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.1 → 4.3forecast component 53.3 → 54.0
- AtoBindex 20 → 30Yellow → Orange8d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 30)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 25.8 → 10.6cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 3.4 → 0.1forecast component 63.0 → 53.3
- AtoAindex 13 → 209d agoActivity score changed from 13 to 20Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 6.0 → 25.8