Rating
Bulgaria risk rating
Activity gradeDindex 68.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated1h ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-13 08:55:25 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 10:55:25 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity100.0/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy51.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Weather
Mean event index: 39/100 · Eligible records: 23
Rating history
- DtoDindex 68 → 68Yellow → Orange13h agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Severe weather warning — Yambol, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributed
Operational status changed from yellow to orange. Current dominant event: Severe weather warning — Yambol, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributed. Context: EVENT: Severe weather warning — Yambol, Bulgaria — BG Detected: 2026-10-12T21:00:01.000Z CalamityScore: 49/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 190,730 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: BG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoDindex 5 → 68Green → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from A to D (score 5 → 68)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.8 → 100.0population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 19.5 → 51.0
- AtoAindex 10 → 53d agoActivity score changed from 10 to 5Current dominant event: Hazardous Air Quality — Sensor.Community (CalamityScore 29); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 5.8population component 5.3 → 0.0forecast component 37.5 → 19.5
- DtoAindex 67 → 10Yellow → Green7d agoCountry rating changed from D to A (score 67 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 8.8population component 100.0 → 5.3forecast component 44.3 → 37.5
- AtoDindex 10 → 67Green → Yellow7d agoCountry rating changed from A to D (score 10 → 67)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 100.0population component 5.6 → 100.0forecast component 39.0 → 44.3
- DtoAindex 61 → 10Yellow → Green8d agoCountry rating changed from D to A (score 61 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 87.2 → 8.8population component 100.0 → 5.6forecast component 41.3 → 39.0
- CtoDindex 58 → 618d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 58 → 61)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.4 → 87.2forecast component 43.5 → 41.3
- AtoCindex 8 → 588d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 8 → 58)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 78.4population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 39.0 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 19 → 8Orange → Yellow9d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.4 → 5.4population component 4.1 → 0.0forecast component 45.0 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 14 → 19Yellow → Orange9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.8 → 29.4population component 0.0 → 4.1forecast component 43.5 → 45.0
- CtoAindex 59 → 1410d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 59 → 14)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.6 → 19.8population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 42.8 → 43.5
- CtoCindex 53 → 5910d agoActivity score changed from 53 to 59Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.4 → 82.6forecast component 40.5 → 42.8
- CtoCindex 59 → 5310d agoActivity score changed from 59 to 53Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.6 → 66.4forecast component 42.8 → 40.5
- AtoCindex 10 → 5910d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 10 → 59)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sofia, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 82.6population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 40.5 → 42.8
- AtoAindex 6 → 10Green → Yellow10d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 10.8forecast component 37.5 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 10 → 6Yellow → Green11d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 1.8forecast component 39.0 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 10Green → Yellow11d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 10.8forecast component 37.5 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 17 → 912d agoActivity score changed from 17 to 9Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.6 → 7.2population component 25.1 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 1712d agoActivity score changed from 8 to 17Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Burgas, Bulgaria (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 14.6population component 0.0 → 25.1
- CtoAindex 46 → 8Yellow → Green12d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 46 → 8)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.0 → 3.6population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 44.3 → 43.5