Rating
Botswana risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 21.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated20m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-14 08:53:47 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-14 10:53:47 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity33.2/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI1.3/100
CFI activity proxy49.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 42/100 · Eligible records: 4
Rating history
- AtoBindex 20 → 217h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 21)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.8 → 33.2population component 0.0 → 1.3
Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 21). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 30.8 → 33.2. population component 0.0 → 1.3. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — BW Detected: 2026-10-13T23:31:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 13,030 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: BW. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 27 → 209h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 27 → 20)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.4 → 30.8population component 1.2 → 0.0
- AtoBindex 14 → 27Green → Yellow16h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 27)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.8 → 48.4population component 0.0 → 1.2
- BtoAindex 22 → 14Yellow → Green1d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 14)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.2 → 15.8population component 2.7 → 0.0
- AtoBindex 13 → 22Green → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 22)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 34.2population component 0.0 → 2.7
- BtoAindex 25 → 13Yellow → Green2d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 25 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.6 → 14.4population component 1.1 → 0.0
- CtoBindex 51 → 25Orange → Yellow2d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 25)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.8 → 44.6cascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 1.8 → 1.1forecast component 44.3 → 49.5
- CtoCindex 45 → 513d agoActivity score changed from 45 to 51Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 33.8 → 46.8population component 1.1 → 1.8forecast component 42.8 → 44.3
- BtoCindex 29 → 453d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 29 → 45)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 12.4 → 33.8cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 1.4 → 1.1forecast component 40.5 → 42.8
- AtoBindex 18 → 294d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 29)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 27.0 → 12.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.0 → 1.4forecast component 49.5 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 14 → 18Yellow → Orange10d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 27.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 14Green → Yellow10d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 16.2
- AtoAindex 12 → 9Yellow → Green11d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.6 → 3.6
- BtoAindex 34 → 12Orange → Yellow12d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 12)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.4 → 12.6cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 46.5 → 49.5
- AtoBindex 14 → 3412d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 34)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 16.2 → 24.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0forecast component 49.5 → 46.5
- CtoAindex 55 → 1413d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 55 → 14)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 54.4 → 16.2cascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 51.8 → 49.5
- CtoCindex 50 → 5513d agoActivity score changed from 50 to 55Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.8 → 54.4cascade component 90.0 → 100.0forecast component 50.3 → 51.8
- DtoCindex 74 → 5014d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 74 → 50)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 96.6 → 49.8cascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 8.8 → 0.0forecast component 55.5 → 50.3
- DtoDindex 66 → 7414d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 74Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 76.6 → 96.6forecast component 54.8 → 55.5
- CtoDindex 50 → 6614d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 50 → 66)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 45.0 → 76.6cascade component 90.0 → 100.0