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Rating

Costa Rica risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentAindex 7.0/100
Operational statusYellow, expired
Last updated10d ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-01 20:24:51 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-01 22:24:51 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity66.0/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI88.1/100
CFI activity proxy1716.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Volcano

Mean event index: 30/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. BtoAindex 26 → 724d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 7)Current dominant event: Rincon de la Vieja (Costa Rica) - Report for 10 September-16 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.8 → 6.0population component 88.7 → 8.1forecast component 16.5 → 18.0

    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 7). Current dominant event: Rincon de la Vieja (Costa Rica) - Report for 10 September-16 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributed. severity component 13.8 → 6.0. population component 88.7 → 8.1. forecast component 16.5 → 18.0. Context: EVENT: Rincon de la Vieja (Costa Rica) - Report for 10 September-16 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity — CR Detected: 2026-09-17T05:20:04.000Z CalamityScore: 30/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 81,430 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area HISTORICAL CONTEXT: This is a notable volcano event with potential for substantial impact. Location: CR region. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoBindex 14 → 3431d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 34)Poas (Costa Rica) - Report for 27 August-2 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 39)
  3. AtoAindex 13 → 13Yellow → Green102d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenMinor Wildfire (CalamityScore 18)
  4. AtoAindex 15 → 17Green → Yellow207d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  5. AtoAindex 18 → 15Yellow → Green208d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 21)
  6. AtoBindex 14 → 31Yellow → Orange208d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 31)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 45)1 new cascade alert(s)
  7. AtoBindex 14 → 31Yellow → Orange208d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 31)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 45)1 new cascade alert(s)
  8. AtoBindex 14 → 31Yellow → Orange208d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 31)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 45)1 new cascade alert(s)
  9. AtoCindex 17 → 41Yellow → Orange209d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 17 → 41)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 45)2 new cascade alert(s)
  10. AtoAindex 12 → 11Yellow → Green210d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  11. AtoAindex 12 → 8Yellow → Green210d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenN (56 MPH) — 1 SW Indianapolis Intl 3, Marion Co., IN (CalamityScore 9)
  12. AtoAindex 13 → 10Yellow → Green210d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenN (56 MPH) — 1 SW Indianapolis Intl 3, Marion Co., IN (CalamityScore 9)
  13. AtoAindex 11 → 7Yellow → Green210d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenN (55 MPH) — 1 SW Indianapolis Intl 3, Marion Co., IN (CalamityScore 9)
  14. AtoAindex 10 → 11Green → Yellow210d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 39)
  15. AtoAindex 12 → 11Yellow → Green211d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  16. AtoBindex 9 → 28211d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 9 → 28)Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39)
  17. AtoAindex 9 → 6Yellow → Green211d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenM 4.2 Earthquake (CalamityScore 2)
  18. AtoAindex 9 → 6Yellow → Green211d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenM 4.2 Earthquake (CalamityScore 2)
  19. AtoAindex 4 → 7Green → Yellow211d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowLarge Wildfire (CalamityScore 30)
  20. AtoAindex 15 → 12Yellow → Green212d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenModerate Wildfire (CalamityScore 26)
Forecast for Costa RicaActive events in Costa Rica