Calamity
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Rating

Ethiopia risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 21.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated9m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-19 17:27:57 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-19 19:27:57 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity3232.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI11.0/100
CFI activity proxy5151.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 40/100 · Eligible records: 4

Rating history

  1. AtoBindex 12 → 21Green → Yellow3h ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 21)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.0 → 32.2population component 0.9 → 1.0

    Country rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 21). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributed. severity component 10.0 → 32.2. population component 0.9 → 1.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ET Detected: 2026-10-19T11:34:00.000Z CalamityScore: 43/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: ET. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. BtoAindex 23 → 12Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 39.0 → 10.0population component 0.7 → 0.9
  3. AtoBindex 14 → 23Green → Yellow3d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 23)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.2 → 39.0population component 0.9 → 0.7
  4. BtoAindex 24 → 14Yellow → Green3d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 24 → 14)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 14.2population component 0.8 → 0.9
  5. AtoBindex 16 → 24Green → Yellow4d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 24)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 40.2population component 4.1 → 0.8
  6. AtoAindex 19 → 16Yellow → Green8d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.2 → 18.4population component 0.8 → 4.1
  7. AtoAindex 17 → 19Green → Yellow9d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.8 → 28.2population component 0.8 → 0.8
  8. BtoAindex 26 → 17Yellow → Green9d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.2 → 22.8population component 0.8 → 0.8
  9. AtoBindex 16 → 26Green → Yellow10d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 26)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 46.2population component 0.0 → 0.8
  10. AtoAindex 10 → 1610d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 21.6
  11. BtoAindex 24 → 10Yellow → Green10d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 24 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 5.4
  12. AtoBindex 11 → 24Green → Yellow11d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 24)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.6 → 40.2
  13. BtoAindex 35 → 11Yellow → Green12d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 67.0 → 8.6population component 1.1 → 0.0
  14. CtoBindex 44 → 3513d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 91.0 → 67.0population component 1.4 → 1.1
  15. BtoCindex 35 → 4414d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.6 → 91.0population component 1.5 → 1.4
  16. CtoBindex 45 → 3514d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 45 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 92.8 → 66.6population component 1.6 → 1.5
  17. BtoCindex 35 → 4515d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 45)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.4 → 92.8population component 2.2 → 1.6
  18. BtoBindex 23 → 3515d ago
    Activity score changed from 23 to 35Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.0 → 68.4population component 0.0 → 2.2
  19. CtoBindex 44 → 23Orange → Yellow15d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 23)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 90.0 → 38.0population component 0.4 → 0.0forecast component 52.5 → 51.0
  20. CtoCindex 48 → 44Red → Orange15d ago
    Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 90.0population component 2.0 → 0.4forecast component 54.0 → 52.5
Forecast for EthiopiaActive events in Ethiopia