Rating
France risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-09 21:16:58 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-09 23:16:58 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 37/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoAindex 9 → 153d agoActivity score changed from 9 to 15Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Calais, France (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 7.4population component 0.0 → 37.1forecast component 43.5 → 31.5
Activity score changed from 9 to 15. Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Calais, France (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributed. severity component 7.2 → 7.4. population component 0.0 → 37.1. forecast component 43.5 → 31.5. Context: EVENT: Moderate weather warning — Calais, France — FR Detected: 2026-10-09T04:00:07.000Z CalamityScore: 37/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 370,944 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: FR. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 38 → 9Yellow → Green4d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 9)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.6 → 7.2population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 37.0 → 43.5
- CtoBindex 41 → 385d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 38)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sèvres, France (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 39.0 → 31.6forecast component 38.5 → 37.0
- BtoCindex 39 → 415d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 41)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sèvres, France (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 33.0 → 39.0forecast component 39.8 → 38.5
- CtoBindex 43 → 395d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 39)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sèvres, France (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.6 → 33.0
- AtoCindex 17 → 43Green → Yellow5d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 17 → 43)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.8 → 42.6population component 19.1 → 100.0forecast component 43.5 → 39.8
- BtoAindex 33 → 176d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 33 → 17)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.0 → 16.8population component 85.7 → 19.1forecast component 36.8 → 43.5
- AtoBindex 14 → 336d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 33)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 25.0population component 19.1 → 85.7forecast component 43.5 → 36.8
- BtoAindex 32 → 146d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 14)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 9.6population component 100.0 → 19.1forecast component 33.0 → 43.5
- BtoBindex 37 → 326d agoActivity score changed from 37 to 32Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sèvres, France (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.0 → 18.4forecast component 38.3 → 33.0
- BtoBindex 31 → 37Yellow → Green6d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.4 → 28.0population component 85.8 → 100.0forecast component 36.8 → 38.3
- BtoBindex 31 → 31Orange → Yellow6d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Severe Ocean Conditions — Buoy 62304 (CalamityScore 54); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.0 → 20.4
- AtoBindex 14 → 31Green → Orange7d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 31)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extreme Ocean Conditions — Buoy 62304 (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 22.0population component 19.2 → 85.8forecast component 43.5 → 36.8
- AtoAindex 15 → 14Orange → Green8d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 9.6population component 13.6 → 19.2
- BtoAindex 22 → 15Red → Orange8d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 15)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.8 → 13.2population component 31.7 → 13.6
- BtoBindex 38 → 228d agoActivity score changed from 38 to 22Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 22.8population component 100.0 → 31.7forecast component 37.5 → 43.5
- BtoBindex 31 → 38Green → Red9d agoOperational status changed from green to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.6 → 30.2
- BtoBindex 38 → 31Red → Green9d agoOperational status changed from red to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Vienne, France (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 14.6
- BtoBindex 35 → 38Orange → Red9d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.4 → 30.2
- AtoBindex 14 → 359d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 35)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 22.4population component 13.5 → 100.0forecast component 43.5 → 37.5