Rating
Italy risk rating
Activity gradeDindex 69.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated22m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-19 15:23:38 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-19 17:23:38 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity100.0/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100.0/100
CFI activity proxy57.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Weather
Mean event index: 39/100 · Eligible records: 59
Rating history
- BtoDindex 36 → 69Green → Orange1h agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 36 → 69)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Orange hydrogeological and thunderstorm alert — Bacini Liguri Marittimi di Centro (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.0 → 100.0forecast component 51.0 → 57.0
Country rating changed from B to D (score 36 → 69). Operational status changed from green to orange. Current dominant event: Orange hydrogeological and thunderstorm alert — Bacini Liguri Marittimi di Centro (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 22.0 → 100.0. forecast component 51.0 → 57.0. Context: EVENT: Orange hydrogeological and thunderstorm alert — Bacini Liguri Marittimi di Centro — IT Detected: 2026-10-19T13:32:04.132Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 738,792 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: IT. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoBindex 21 → 363h agoActivity score changed from 21 to 36Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Toscana, Italy (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.6 → 22.0population component 40.0 → 100.0forecast component 33.8 → 51.0
- AtoBindex 11 → 215h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 21)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Calabria, Italy (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.2 → 19.6population component 6.8 → 40.0
- BtoAindex 36 → 11Yellow → Green9h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 36 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sardegna, Italy (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.8 → 12.2population component 100.0 → 6.8
- DtoBindex 68 → 36Orange → Yellow14h agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 68 → 36)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Piemonte, Italy (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 27.8forecast component 52.5 → 33.8
- DtoDindex 68 → 68Red → Orange19h agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Orange thunderstorm alert — Bacini Liguri Marittimi di Centro (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedforecast component 54.0 → 52.5
- CtoDindex 60 → 681d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 68)Current dominant event: Extreme weather warning — Piemonte, Italy (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.2 → 100.0forecast component 51.0 → 54.0
- DtoCindex 61 → 601d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 61 → 60)Current dominant event: Extreme weather warning — Piemonte, Italy (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.4 → 81.2
- CtoDindex 48 → 611d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 48 → 61)Current dominant event: Extreme weather warning — Piemonte, Italy (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.0 → 82.4
- DtoCindex 68 → 481d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 68 → 48)Current dominant event: Extreme weather warning — Piemonte, Italy (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 52.0
- DtoDindex 65 → 68Orange → Red1d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Extreme weather warning — Piemonte, Italy (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedforecast component 33.8 → 51.0
- BtoDindex 23 → 65Green → Orange2d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 23 → 65)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Orange thunderstorm alert — Bacini Liguri Marittimi di Centro (CalamityScore 54); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.8 → 100.0population component 41.1 → 100.0
- AtoBindex 18 → 232d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 23)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 162) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.8 → 23.8population component 22.6 → 41.1forecast component 51.0 → 33.8
- AtoAindex 12 → 182d agoActivity score changed from 12 to 18Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sicilia, Italy (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 6.4 → 13.8population component 6.8 → 22.6
- CtoAindex 43 → 12Yellow → Green2d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 43 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Sardegna, Italy (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.8 → 6.4population component 100.0 → 6.8forecast component 33.8 → 51.0
- CtoCindex 53 → 432d agoActivity score changed from 53 to 43Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 161) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.8 → 45.8
- CtoCindex 45 → 532d agoActivity score changed from 45 to 53Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 161) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.4 → 68.8forecast component 52.5 → 33.8
- AtoCindex 17 → 45Green → Yellow2d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 17 → 45)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.6 → 42.4population component 12.5 → 100.0forecast component 54.0 → 52.5
- CtoAindex 52 → 17Yellow → Green3d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 52 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 60.8 → 16.6population component 100.0 → 12.5forecast component 52.5 → 54.0
- BtoCindex 28 → 52Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 28 → 52)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Emilia e Romagna, Italy (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.8 → 60.8population component 46.3 → 100.0