Rating
Madagascar risk rating
Activity gradeCindex 58.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated10m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-19 18:58:43 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-19 20:58:43 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity100.0/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI41.4/100
CFI activity proxy63.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 54
Rating history
- CtoCindex 51 → 575h agoActivity score changed from 51 to 57Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 9.7 → 36.1
Activity score changed from 51 to 57. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributed. population component 9.7 → 36.1. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — MG Detected: 2026-10-19T11:23:00.000Z CalamityScore: 55/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 24,985 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: MG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoCindex 59 → 5119h agoActivity score changed from 59 to 51Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 46.1 → 9.7
- CtoCindex 54 → 591d agoActivity score changed from 54 to 59Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 25.1 → 46.1
- DtoCindex 62 → 541d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 54)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 60.9 → 25.1
- CtoDindex 60 → 621d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 50.6 → 60.9
- CtoCindex 54 → 602d agoActivity score changed from 54 to 60Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 23.7 → 50.6
- DtoCindex 61 → 542d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 61 → 54)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 59.9 → 23.7
- CtoDindex 59 → 613d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 59 → 61)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 47.5 → 59.9
- CtoCindex 54 → 593d agoActivity score changed from 54 to 59Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 24.3 → 47.5
- DtoCindex 62 → 543d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 62 → 54)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 64.5 → 24.3
- CtoDindex 60 → 623d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 52.3 → 64.5
- CtoCindex 54 → 605d agoActivity score changed from 54 to 60Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 20.9 → 52.3
- CtoCindex 49 → 545d agoActivity score changed from 49 to 54Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 96.6 → 100.0population component 6.7 → 20.9
- CtoCindex 54 → 496d agoActivity score changed from 54 to 49Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 96.6population component 23.6 → 6.7
- DtoCindex 77 → 54Orange → Yellow7d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 77 → 54)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 16.8 → 23.6forecast component 54.8 → 63.0
- EtoDindex 83 → 7713d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 83 → 77)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 47.6 → 16.8
- DtoEindex 77 → 8314d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 77 → 83)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 78); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 20.0 → 47.6
- DtoDindex 78 → 77Red → Orange15d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 72); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)population component 16.4 → 20.0forecast component 61.5 → 54.8
- CtoDindex 53 → 7815d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 53 → 78)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 72); cause of change not attributed19 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 100.0population component 16.8 → 16.4forecast component 63.0 → 61.5
- DtoCindex 79 → 5315d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 79 → 53)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 25.2 → 16.8forecast component 61.5 → 63.0