Rating
Northern Mariana Islands risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-05 22:36:09 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-06 00:36:09 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 16/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoAindex 7 → 4Yellow → Green7d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 16); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 3.2forecast component 39.0 → 18.0
Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 16); cause of change not attributed. severity component 3.6 → 3.2. forecast component 39.0 → 18.0. Context: EVENT: M 5.1 Earthquake — MP Detected: 2026-10-05T10:52:10.440Z CalamityScore: 16/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: MP. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 6 → 7Green → Yellow9d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Typhoon Choi-Wan (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 6.8 → 3.6forecast component 24.0 → 39.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.147 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 9 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.147 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 12 → 9Orange → Green98d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenFlash Flood Warning (CalamityScore 22)
- AtoAindex 12 → 9Orange → Green98d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenFlash Flood Warning (CalamityScore 22)
- AtoAindex 12 → 9Orange → Green98d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenFlash Flood Warning (CalamityScore 22)
- AtoAindex 10 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.198 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 10 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.198 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 10 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.198 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 10 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.198 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 10 → 12Green → Orange98d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.198 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Orange99d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0.198 million . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Orange99d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 48269 . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 10 → 7Orange → Green99d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenDisaster — Mariana Islands (CalamityScore 16)
- AtoAindex 10 → 7Orange → Green99d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenDisaster — Mariana Islands (CalamityScore 16)
- AtoAindex 10 → 7Orange → Green99d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenDisaster — Mariana Islands (CalamityScore 16)
- AtoAindex 8 → 10Green → Orange99d agoOperational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 48269 . (CalamityScore 44)
- AtoAindex 10 → 7Orange → Green99d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenDisaster — Mariana Islands (CalamityScore 16)
- AtoAindex 10 → 7Orange → Green99d agoOperational status changed from orange to greenDisaster — Mariana Islands (CalamityScore 16)