Rating
Malawi risk rating
Activity gradeCindex 51.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated14m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-18 18:32:58 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-18 20:32:58 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity90.4/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI30.7/100
CFI activity proxy57.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 45/100 · Eligible records: 10
Rating history
- BtoCindex 39 → 475h agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 47)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.0 → 82.8population component 29.3 → 27.9
Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 47). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. severity component 61.0 → 82.8. population component 29.3 → 27.9. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — MW Detected: 2026-10-18T10:49:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 174,562 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: MW. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoBindex 55 → 3918h agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 55 → 39)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 61.0population component 31.2 → 29.3
- CtoCindex 44 → 551d agoActivity score changed from 44 to 55Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.2 → 100.0population component 22.1 → 31.2
- BtoCindex 31 → 441d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 31 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 54.6 → 78.2population component 5.2 → 22.1
- CtoBindex 44 → 311d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 44 → 31)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.2 → 54.6population component 21.5 → 5.2
- CtoCindex 54 → 441d agoActivity score changed from 54 to 44Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 78.2population component 26.7 → 21.5
- BtoCindex 36 → 542d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 36 → 54)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 64.0 → 100.0population component 8.3 → 26.7
- CtoBindex 54 → 362d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 54 → 36)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 64.0population component 27.6 → 8.3
- CtoCindex 44 → 543d agoActivity score changed from 44 to 54Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.2 → 100.0population component 15.3 → 27.6
- BtoCindex 35 → 443d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 44)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 64.4 → 82.2population component 2.2 → 15.3
- CtoBindex 53 → 353d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 53 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 64.4population component 21.9 → 2.2
- CtoCindex 43 → 533d agoActivity score changed from 43 to 53Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 76.2 → 100.0population component 20.2 → 21.9
- BtoCindex 26 → 434d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 26 → 43)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.4 → 76.2population component 1.1 → 20.2
- AtoBindex 19 → 264d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 26)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.8 → 42.4population component 0.8 → 1.1
- BtoAindex 32 → 194d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 19)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.4 → 26.8population component 3.3 → 0.8
- AtoBindex 12 → 32Green → Yellow5d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 32)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 56.4population component 1.0 → 3.3
- CtoAindex 46 → 12Yellow → Green5d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 46 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.2 → 7.8population component 23.2 → 1.0
- AtoCindex 20 → 466d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 20 → 46)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.4 → 81.2population component 1.5 → 23.2
- CtoAindex 52 → 206d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 52 → 20)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 27.4population component 18.3 → 1.5
- DtoCindex 65 → 52Orange → Yellow7d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 65 → 52)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 99.0 → 100.0cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 5.4 → 18.3forecast component 44.3 → 57.0